Posted on 10/15/2022 2:12:04 PM PDT by BigEdLB
en after decades-high inflation, pandemic, and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a new poll commissioned by CT Examiner suggests a close race for governor in Connecticut that mirrors the results four years ago between Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Bob Stefanowski.
In a three-way contest, Gov. Ned Lamont leads Bob Stefanowski 46% to 40%, with 5% opting for Independent Party candidate Rob Hotaling, and 10% undecided according to the nonpartisan poll released on Saturday.
The CT Examiner/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll, conducted on Oct. 10-13, surveyed 1,200 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
The numbers suggest a significantly tighter race, and greater voter familiarity with Stefanowski, than an earlier poll by Quinnipiac University of 1,911 likely voters, taken on Sept. 15-19, which did not include Hotaling.
“Clearly, the economy is the thing that people care about and it’s the thing they’re noticing,” said Steven Moore, a professor of political science at Wesleyan University.
The CT Examiner/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates data shows that 24% of likely voters identify inflation as the most important issue in determining their choice for governor, followed by jobs/economy at 14% and abortion at 11%.
“Inflation and general pessimism about the state of the economy creates some real headwinds for Democrats, and that extends into a state like Connecticut,” said Wesleyan Prof. Logan Dancey.
Dancey told CT Examiner that the results for the governor’s race was about what he would have expected.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Lamont outperforms what he did in 2018,” said Dancey.
Paul Herrson, a political scientist at the University of Connecticut, said Lamont’s lead over Stefanowski, if sustained, would actually be a “big victory” given the pandemic and the economy “not doing that well.”
“People’s lives have been massively disrupted, and if you are president, or the governor of [the] state, you’re the lightning rod for people’s displeasure,” said Herrson.
Onotse Omoyeni, press secretary for the Lamont campaign, said that the polling showed that Stefanowski’s positions on social issues was having a negative effect on the Republican’s popularity.
“The Governor remains laser-focused on working to grow Connecticut’s economy, providing relief for Connecticut families, and getting our fiscal house in order,” said Omoyeni in a statement to CT Examiner. “As has been clear throughout this race, Bob’s extreme anti-choice and anti-gun safety positions – coupled with his constant negativity – continue to turn voters against his candidacy.”
But Stefanowski said in a statement that the poll results were good news for his campaign, and reflected the increased support for his candidacy.
“This survey demonstrates the momentum I’ve been feeling on the ground for weeks. Governor Lamont has had four years to fix the state and he’s failed. Higher taxes are making inflation worse, people feel less safe, and our state economy is tanking,” Stefanowski told CT Examiner. “More people every day realize that one-party rule is failing us and it’s time for a change. Laura Devlin and I have detailed plans to make CT more affordable and safe on Day One and we are looking forward to the final weeks of this race.”
According to the new poll, President Joe Biden’s approve/disapprove among Connecticut likely voters mirrors national polling, at 43% approve to 53% disapprove, but Stefanowski was the choice of just 70% of those negative respondents.
The latest polls also suggest that few likely voters are splitting their ballots, at least on the state and national levels, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal leading challenger Leora Levy by a margin of just 5 points, 49% to 44% with 7% undecided – numbers that surprised Dancey.
“I would’ve expected a bigger lead for Blumenthal,” said Dancey.
I heard Shumaaah may be in trouble.....
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