You bring up good points in expecting it to go down further. Me, I don't get into factor investing. I watch trends. The trends I'm watching are how fast it's going down (slow by 1987 and 2020 standards, each of which had the S&P 500 drop 30% in a few months). Thus I'm expecting the drop to be at least 15% more to total at least 40% from its ATH like it did in the slow drop of 2008 (1.5 years to drop 56%) or 2000 (2.5 years to drop 49%).
One factor that did get my attention though is that Biden is a Dim coming into the WH with the stock market at a crazy high (I expected little room to rise more, but a lot of room to fall). This is unlike Obama inheriting a stock market that had already cut in half and had nowhere else to go but up. Even Clinton's stock market he inherited, though technically at a high, had only very slowly grown through the Bush Sr years (at the time Clinton entered the WH the S&P 500 was up only 38% from the prior high it had in 1987 5 and a half years prior). Thus you could argue the stock market had some catching up to do when Clinton inherited it, like holding back a spring ready to spring up.
Brandon is a Dim that inherited a high stock market with virtually nowhere to go but down. Which is the kind of stock market Trump inherited too, but Trump is Trump. Brandon ain't Trump.
Study all the trends you want but if Biden’s talk of nuclear Armageddon comes true does it really matter what happens at that point. /sarcasm
Thanks for your response. I found it interesting.