Posted on 10/12/2022 9:39:37 AM PDT by frogjerk
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — October 7, 2022 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.9 percent on October 7, up from 2.7 percent on October 5. After this morning's employment situation report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.1 percent and -3.6 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 14.
(Excerpt) Read more at atlantafed.org ...
Reminds of the chart of the votes coming in after midnight of the 2020 Election....
Off the top of my head, the only thing that rationalizes the increase is out of control government sending kicking. There are multiple spending bills that are starting to add up. GDP includes government outlays. John Maynard Keynes was an eff’n moron.
They accidentally had their chart upside down.
The rest of the world sucks for investments. The US has already been projected to have a higher growth next year. The leper with the most fingers as they say.
Government “services” are included.
Regardless—good to see they are showing inflation-adjusted numbers.
In real terms we are looking at recession for the rest of 2022 and probably all of 2023.
How did you get that footage of my co-workers?
All of a sudden, at the very last moment, just before the quarter was coming to an end, a sudden jump! How fortunate!
Note that the big leap upward was a result of reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau. Both are agencies directly administered by the Biden administration. But this is how I know they're lying- from the report- third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -3.6 percent to -3.4 percent . . .
They are claiming that investment losses are less than what they were at the end of June. But we know that both the Dow and the S & P closed lower on 9-30-22 than they were on 6-30-22. Of course, the stock market is not the only domestic investment, but it is the bellwether.
Yes, how fortunate as they desperately need to follow the Bank of England and pivot.
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