From all the polls I have seen so far in contested states, Republicans are all about 2% to 5% behind. (except one person 2% ahead, I forget which).
I think the only thing that can drive Republican senators over the top is the turnout rate. Every single person, no matter how bleak it looks has to vote in person in order to win the election by high turnout.
All these comments about how we are going ‘to crush’ the Democrats in the election with a red wave are counterproductive because it removes the ‘urgency’ to vote Republican. It lulls people into staying at home and watching TV instead of voting. At least that is what I think.
In a Democrat year, their polling shows Democrats leading by 5-7. In a GOP year, it’s Democrats by two. There is a never a forewarning of a GOP landslide. The media, the consultants, and the pollsters themselves won’t do it. Most pollsters are Democrat activists and work for places like universities. Fox News polls might as well be done by MSNBC.
They told us Carter and Reagan were dead even in 1980. Nobody gave us a hint that Nixon would win 49 states, nor the Gipper twelve years later. Not a hint of a GOP wave in 1994, 2010, or 2014. Their polls are predictable garbage.
And now add the reluctance of shy people to tell a pollster how they are voting because of Biden and the Gestapo. That’s not people like us, although we are likely to not give up info to strangers on the phone.