Mehrdad and Saba Bakhtiari broke the news in separate posts on Instagram and X.
Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Autocratic rule by its nature tends to have succession problems. Rarely though does succession in itself lead to needed reforms being carried out. The more common result is a period of uncertainty before a new leader emerges, consolidates control, and then doubles down on failure disguised as change.
The name is Khamenei, not Khamenie. Gee, the media needs to hire reporters who can spell.
This is one of issues driving the rumor mill:
Ebrahim Raisi’s chief of staff, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, has in an interview with Iran’s state TV given a detailed account of their phone calls with Ayatollah Ale-Hashem, one of the companions of Raisi following the crash, saying he was still alive a few hours after the incident.
https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1792966492490760433
!
Odd, very odd. Perhaps the Mossad was taking advantage of the crash to sow controversy in a spoofed phone call.
Thx.
The Iranian Assembly of Experts elected its leadership board on May 21, marking a new era for the body responsible for selecting the next supreme leader.[1] The Assembly of Experts is an Iranian regime entity constitutionally responsible for monitoring the supreme leader and selecting his successor. Assembly of Experts leadership board members serve two-year terms. This is the first time since 2016 that the Assembly of Experts has not been led by influential cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.
This Assembly of Experts leadership board election is particularly significant given Khamenei’s old age and Raisi’s recent death. Khamenei is 84 years old and will be 92 by the time of the next Assembly of Experts election in 2032.[2] The 88 representatives elected to the Assembly of Experts in March 2024 will at least formally choose Khamenei’s successor if he dies or otherwise leaves his post before then.[3] Other powerbrokers within the regime—such as the IRGC—will undoubtably informally influence supreme leader succession as well. It is also possible, but not certain, that one of the newly chosen Assembly of Experts leaders could succeed Khamenei as supreme leader. All of the chairmen and secretaries hold the rank of Ayatollah—a prerequisite to become supreme leader—and all of them, besides Kermani, are in their 60s.
The Assembly of Experts elected the following individuals to leadership positions:
Chairman: Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani.[4] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Kermani as an interim Tehran Friday prayer leader in December 2012.[5] Kermani also served as Khamenei’s representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) for 14 years between February 1992 and January 2006.[6] Kermani previously served as the second deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts until February 2023.[7] 55 out of 83 Assembly of Experts members voted for Kermani to become chairman.[8] Kermani is 93 years old.[9]
First Deputy Chairman: Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri.[10] Bushehri is the Qom Friday prayer leader and the head of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom.[11] The Assembly of Experts elected Bushehri to replace Kermani as the second deputy chairman in February 2023.[12] Bushehri’s tenure as second deputy chairman overlapped with former President Ebrahim Raisi’s tenure as first deputy chairman.[13] Bushehri is 68 years old.
Second Deputy Chairman: Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.[14] Khamenei appointed Arafi as the director of all seminaries across Iran in 2016.[15] Khamenei later appointed Arafi as a member of the Guardian Council—a 12-member regime body responsible for supervising elections, vetting candidates, and approving legislation—in 2019.[16] Arafi has not previously held a leadership position in the Assembly of Experts. Arafi is 68 years old.
Secretary: Ayatollah Mohsen Araki.[17] Khamenei appointed Araki as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council in 2022.[18] He has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts since 1998.[19] The Assembly of Experts elected Araki as a cultural manager in February 2023.[20] Araki replaced Guardian Council member and Tehran interim Friday prayer leader Ahmad Khatami as one of the Assembly of Experts secretaries.[21] Araki is 68 years old.
Secretary: Ayatollah Abbas Kaabi.[22] Kaabi is continuing his role as a Secretary of the Assembly of Experts.[23] Kaabi is 62 years old
Two anonymous sources told Reuters on May 21 that the Assembly of Experts removed former President Ebrahim Raisi from the list of potential supreme leader successors in November 2023 due to his declining popularity.[24] There is reportedly a three-member committee in the Assembly of Experts that is responsible for preparing a list of potential candidates to succeed Khamenei.[25] Raisi was reportedly a member of this committee, so it is unclear how the Assembly of Experts could have removed his name from the list.[26] One of the sources told Reuters that clerics who supported Raisi lobbied “intensively” to have his name added back to the list.[27] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify these claims. It is notable that the sources told Reuters Raisi was no longer in the running to become supreme leader at a time when it is convenient for the Iranian regime to assure its people and those within the regime that Raisi’s death did not disrupt the supreme leader succession process.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-21-2024
This technique wouldn’t work here, we have too many regime TV/Radio channels for the hackers to deal with. CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, NPR, local affiliates, etc.
Referring to Quranic verses about the fulfillment of two promises made by God to the mother of Prophet Moses, he added, “Currently, the first promise of God regarding the people of Palestine has been fulfilled, and that is the victory of the people of Gaza, who are a small group, against the large and powerful groups of the US, NATO, the UK, and some other countries.”
“On this basis, the second promise, which is the elimination of Israel, is also achievable, and by divine grace, the day will come when Palestine will be established from the “sea” to the “river,” he added. Khamenei emphasized, “Mr. Mokhber, who is responsible for the country's executive affairs according to the Constitution, will continue the policies and orientations of the late President regarding Palestine with the same motivation and spirit.
Khatami and Rouhani referred to Raisi as a “martyr” in their messages, whereas Ahmadinejad extended condolences without using the term “martyr.” The death of officials while on duty is considered ‘martyrdom’ in the Islamic Republic.
Ahmadinejad also sparked controversy on Tuesday by wearing white, instead of black, during a meeting of the Assembly of Experts.
Thank you for continued reporting on another area of important news.
Official Report on Raisi Crash Raises Questions, Explains Little
Speculations, often conspiratorial in nature, mushroomed immediately after the news of the crash, long before Raisi and other officials were confirmed dead. More conjecture emerged in the following hours and days, mostly pointing fingers at Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s eldest son who is widely believed to be the main contender to replace his father.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202405241947
https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1793855971988516877
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Alamolhoda
This is as well interesting:
Ahmad Alamolhoda have demanded a serious and impartial investigation to clarify the cause of Ibrahim Raisi’s death and said that they do not recognize the “hypothesis of bad weather and the age of the helicopter”.
A lot of nerve that faather-in-law has. Not only does he discount Allah’s effect on the weather, and aging of helicopters, he also presumes to replace Allah as the one to propose martyrdom for all Islamic Republic authories. Does this mean he no longer believes in Allah or his control and judgement over the lives of all good and bad Muslims??
Also, why does he condemn everyone before the investigation is even done? It will be interesting to see how the viral commentary will play out on what appears to me as rather unIslamic thinking. Of course, not being Muslim, I could be reading this completely wrong. Megan: I too thought Raisi probably told the pilot GO, and he WENT.
I wonder if the Houthis attack on Suez shipping has also caused supply chain and higher costs in Russia as well as here and in Europe? Suez does provide 30 to 40% of all container shipping transit.
Iran Update, May 22, 2024
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stressed the continuity of Iranian foreign policy in meetings with several foreign dignitaries who attended Raisi’s funeral. Khamenei held separate meetings with senior officials from Armenia, Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, Tunisia, and Qatar as well as Hamas officials to emphasize Iran’s commitment to preserving ties with these actors.[12] Iranian media claimed that officials from over 90 countries attended Raisi’s funeral procession, making Khamenei’s meeting with these seven actors particularly noteworthy.[13] Interim President Mohammad Mokhber and Interim Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani attended the meetings that Khamenei held with Iraqi, Hamas, and Pakistani officials, suggesting that Khamenei is particularly concerned about projecting continuity to these actors.[14] It is possible that Mokhber and Bagheri Kani attended other meetings as well. Khamenei emphasized Mokhber’s presidential powers and Iran‘s uninterrupted commitment to its partnerships in several of these meetings.[15] Iran may delay some diplomatic processes, such as negotiations, however, until it elects its next president.
The regime may seek to leverage perceived international sympathy for Raisi’s death to forge ties with new strategic partners. Iranian media and regime-affiliated social media users boasted that some Egyptian and Tunisian officials traveled to Iran for the first time to attend Raisi’s funeral and celebrated international turnout.[16]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-22-2024
Iran Update, May 23, 2024
Iran is capitalizing on the presence of senior Axis of Resistance officials in Tehran for Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral to coordinate and cohere their approaches to the Israel–Hamas war. Iranian leaders held two meetings with senior Axis of Resistance officials in Tehran on May 23.[1] The first meeting included senior IRGC officers and representatives from several Palestinian militias, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis.[2] The participants discussed the “continuation of the jihad and struggle until the complete victory of the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip.”
Photos published by Iranian state media indicate that the following individuals were in that meeting:
IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami
IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Deputy Secretary General Mohammad al Hindi
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) Deputy Secretary General Jamil Mezher
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem
Houthi spokesperson Mohammad Abdul Salam
The second meeting involved the following individuals based on photos published by Iranian state media:
Acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh
Hamas founder Mousa Abu Marzouk
Hamas Deputy Leader in the West Bank Zaher Jabarin
PIJ Deputy Secretary General Mohammad al Hindi
PIJ Leader in Lebanon Ihsan Ataya
PFLP Deputy Secretary General Jamil Mezher
The publication of this information is especially noteworthy given that Iranian state media does not typically report on such meetings in such detail. Iran likely published the information to signal the close alignment and cooperation between Tehran and its regional partners and proxies.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-23-2024
Iran Update, May 24, 2024
Iran’s political factions have begun to maneuver and prepare for the Iranian presidential election in June 2024 to replace Ebrahim Raisi. Iranian reformist politicians, including former President Mohammad Khatami, have argued in recent days that the election needs political diversity to encourage voter turnout.[15] These reformists are responding to how Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has allowed hardliners to marginalize moderates and reformists to an unprecedented level in recent years. Moderate and reformist figures argued that Khamenei allowing them to compete in elections would drive electoral participation, which has dropped to record lows in recent years. Reform Front spokesperson Javad Emam stated that reformist politicians will convene on May 26 to discuss the upcoming election.[16] Social media accounts have suggested that former Parliament Speaker and prominent moderate Ali Larijani plans to run as a candidate in the election.[17]
Iranian hardliners appear to be similarly organizing themselves ahead of the election. Social media accounts reported on May 24 that prominent hardliner Saeed Jalili plans to register as a candidate.[18] This rumor comes after an Iranian opposition outlet reported that elements in the regime have tried to convince Khamenei to prevent Jalili from running.[19] These elements include some moderates, such as Ali Larijani. They also include several hardliners, such as Expediency Discernment Council Chairman Sadegh Amoli Larijani, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and adviser to the supreme leader Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-24-2024
Iran Update, May 25, 2024
nothing specific
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-25-2024
Potential candidates for the June 28 presidential election:
Eshaq Jahangiri, former first vice president of Iran
Mohammad Reza Aref, Member of the Political Expediency Council
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Former Foreign Minister
Masoud Pezeshkian, Member of Parliament
Abdolnasser Hemmati, Former head of the Central Bank
Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, Secretary General of the Equality and Development Party
Mohsen Mehr-Alizadeh, Head of the International Federation for Traditional Wrestling
Mohsen Hashemi, Son of former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
Ali Larijani, Former head of parliament
Mohammad Mokhber, Acting President
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Current head of parliament
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Former President
Saeed Jalili, Representative of the Supreme Leader to the Supreme National Security Council
Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, Advisor to the Supreme Leader
Alireza Zakani, Mayor of Tehran
Parviz Fattah, Head of the Executive Headquarters of the Imam’s Decrees
Abbas Johari, the secretary of the electoral headquarters of Tehran province, announced that the final list of candidates will be revealed on June 11. Following this, candidates will have 15 days to campaign.
Doubts remain that several of the above names, including former presidents and vice presidents, will make the final list, which is shrunk down by government to an average of about 8 final candidates.
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