Posted on 10/03/2022 4:12:12 PM PDT by FarCenter
Rio de Janeiro (AFP) – Following a trend in recent years of underestimating voter support for Brexit and Donald Trump, opinion polls in Brazil were way off the mark for Sunday's first round of presidential elections.
Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and many of his far-right allies mustered results much better than pollsters had predicted, catching analysts off guard and shocking supporters of his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
"The biggest loser (of Sunday's election) are all the polls," Latin America analyst Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank told AFP.
...
What went wrong?
Analysts are scratching their heads: was it a last-minute Bolsonaro surge among undecided or opposition voters, or is it that polling institutes with a hitherto reliable reputation have somehow lost the ability to accurately predict voter intention?
"We don't know if Bolsonaro made real advances or whether he already had this support" that polls failed to capture, Leandro Gabiati, director of the Dominium consultancy, told AFP.
According to Mayra Goulart of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, there has been an "information blackout" in Brazil due to a pandemic-induced, two-year delay in the population census, held every 10 years.
This may have affected the accuracy of pollsters' population sampling especially in influential segments such as evangelicals -- a growing and right-leaning section of Brazilian society.
"It is likely that the 2022 census will correct some of these inconsistencies for future elections," said Guilherme Casaroes, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
(Excerpt) Read more at france24.com ...
“Analysts are scratching their heads: “
“According to Mayra Goulart of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, there has been an “information blackout” in Brazil due to a pandemic-induced, two-year delay in the population census, held every 10 years.”
**
(eyes roll up)
There is only one poll that counts, assuming the count is on the up and up.
Perhaps because the counting stopped at 2AM, only to resume with the incumbent in the lead by a wide margin?
The polls are a propaganda tool for the left. That’s why they’ve been so wildly wrong about recent elections - they’re lies.
Hmmmmm …. Can’t wait til November here
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.