Posted on 09/30/2022 5:27:04 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Russian forces were on the verge of a major military defeat Friday as Kyiv’s Armed Forces closed in on the occupied Ukrainian city of Lyman and appeared hours away from trapping thousands of Russian troops in an encirclement.
“Even if the city isn’t already enveloped, all the routes or roads out of the city are under Ukrainian artillery fire,” said military analyst Konrad Muzyka at Poland-based Rochan Consulting.
“Without Russian reinforcements, the city and the entire area is going to fall to Ukraine,” he told The Moscow Times.
A key supply hub for Russian forces, the stronghold of Lyman, which sits to the north of the Donets River in the north of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, has been the site of fierce fighting in recent weeks as Ukraine seeks to press forward with a counteroffensive.
Following the recapture of Kharkiv region from Russia earlier this month, Ukrainian forces have been pressuring the city from the northwest via the small town of Drobysheve and from the southeast through the village of Dibrova.
Lyman was in a “half-encirclement,” the Moscow-installed head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin admitted in a Telegram post Friday.
“Our guys are fighting, we’re sending in reserves and we should be able to last it out, but the enemy has also committed significant forces. It’s very unpleasant news.”
Russian pro-war bloggers have expressed increasing alarm about the vulnerability of Russian forces in Lyman on messaging app Telegram since late Thursday.
“By midnight, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to actually complete the encirclement of Lyman,” pro-Kremlin blogger Rybar posted early Friday morning. And pro-Kremlin journalist Semyon Pegov described the situation as “increasingly difficult” for Russian forces.
Ukraine has taken control of the Torskoye-Drobyshevo highway, Russia’s last “supply and egress” route out of the city toward the largely Russian-occupied Luhansk region, U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War said in a report late Thursday.
It is unclear how many Russian troops could end up being trapped in and around Lyman, although some believe there could be thousands.
Russian units deployed to the area reportedly include Russia’s 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, a mechanized infantry brigade from the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army as well as parts of Russia’s BARS-13 detachment, a volunteer group.
“The situation is still extremely difficult. The enemy does not stop trying to repel us from Drobysheve. The enemy outnumbers us many times. Attacks are made by infantry with the support of artillery and aviation,” the commander of the BARS-13 detachment, Sergei Fomchenkov, said Friday in an interview with the state-run RT network.
“Nevertheless, BARS-13 adamantly holds its positions.”
Because the wetlands around Lyman do not lend themselves to effective tank warfare, much of the fighting is likely being carried out by infantry and artillery, said Muzyka.
Lyman, which sits on a key rail crossroads, is one of Russia’s last lines of defense before the Donetsk region’s eastern border with Luhansk. Together, Donetsk and Luhansk regions — known as the Donbas — are a key war aim for the Kremlin.
Despite the looming threat of encirclement, Russian forces have refused to pull troops out of Lyman in what Muzyka said is likely a tactic to buy time.
Damaged Russian military vehicle in Donetsk region. armyinform.com.ua (CC BY 4.0) Damaged Russian military vehicle in Donetsk region.armyinform.com.ua (CC BY 4.0) Observers believe that Moscow will attempt to use the additional manpower raised as a result of President Vladimir Putin’s “partial” mobilization announced last week to shore up its defenses in occupied Ukraine.
Some of these newly mobilized men have already been deployed to the battlefield, including to positions around Lyman, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
“The enemy continues to send newly mobilized, low-skilled personnel to the areas of combat operations,” Ukraine’s General Staff said Thursday in a statement.
By continuing to fight in Lyman, according to Muzyka, Russia can tie down Ukrainian forces while it trains and deploys new recruits to defensive lines ahead of an expected battle for Sievierodonetsk, a major city east of Lyman that fell to Russian forces in June.
But at the same time, the encirclement of a large Russian force — especially following Putin’s declaration Friday that Russia was annexing Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions — would be a symbolic and military blow.
The long-term significance of the loss of Lyman will depend on how successfully Moscow can withstand the next wave of attacks by Ukrainian forces, which are seeking to advance further into the Donbas.
“This will definitely be a tactical setback,” Muzyka said.
“But whether we're looking at a strategic failure will depend on if there is a massive collapse of Russian lines in Luhansk in the next couple of weeks.”
With the impending fall of Lyman, the stage is set for the Ukraine to conquer all of Luhansk.
wow moscow times
Well, covering the exits from that cauldron with artillery is nice, and will cause significant casualties, but it won’t prevent the entrapped Russian soldiers from escaping. They may lose a lot of vehicles, though.
Our friends of Putin will tell you this is all propaganda.
BTW - YouTube site called 1420, interviews Russians (in Russia) about their views on the ‘Special Operation’ - very insightful
—”but it won’t prevent the entrapped Russian soldiers from escaping.”
Sun Tzu said...
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is “to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair.” Tu Mu adds pleasantly: “After that, you may crush him.”
https://suntzusaid.com/book/7/36/
Ha!
the first real “caludron””encirclement” may be at hnad!
Bargaining chips for a large prisoner exchange
The Russian war map agees with this assessment.
Russian sources in general seem even more gloomy than this article. The Russians seem to have evacuated Drobysheve for Lyman for instance. The perimeter of the Lyman pocket continues to shrink.
You can check one source against another and get a more accurate take on the situation. Attacking the source is a lazy form of denial.
Truly— something variously called “Themo.org” etc.etc.
Not Moscow... EU front group or better the see eye ehhhhhhhsowhat.
Could Russia lose? It used to be unthinkable, but now??
Could Russia lose? It used to be unthinkable, but now??
LOL
All sources agree on the situation at Lyman.
Including the Russians.
This guy is basing his take mainly on the pro-Russian updated Rybar map.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cPA8zLjwZng
*Yawn*
Look over here, not over there.
Thinkable.
The Russians have lost a lot of both men and equipment, and professional cadre besides.
Then there is the upcoming mud and winter weather, losing supply lines, evident lack of equipment and, surprisingly, ammo, etc.
They can expect a lot of infantry replacements, but that should help only defensively until they can make up their materiel deficiencies. Indeed the Russians may now be facing the same situation the Ukrainians were in from April-July - lots of men but little equipment and firepower.
If the Russians had had these infantry replacements six months ago it may have been a different story.
So the Russians arent about to defeat Ukraine in the next six months. At best they may be able to hold their ground. That will throw the question outside the scope of the battlefield and into the field of politics and economics.
Slobber Ukraine.
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