Cunning plan? The Russians came to us in December to try to prevent this war. All they wanted was a promise Ukraine would remain neutral and the Minsk Accords, which Ukraine signed off and would have protected ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, implemented. That you don't know shows how little you know about the cause of the war.
But, to answer your question -- the war on the ground has mostly been fought by militias of LPR and DPR, Chechens and the Wagner group. Russia has only used 10% of its military on the ground.
Now, however, that the annexed areas are Russian territory, the Russian military will defend it as Russian territory. And, that means the full force of the Russian military will involved.
Ukraine has no chance whatsoever. It tried an offensive in Kherson where the Russian military was and was slaughtered. Ukraine's only "successful" offensive have been in areas the Russians pulled out of.
“All they wanted was a promise Ukraine would remain neutral and the Minsk Accords, which Ukraine signed off and would have protected ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, implemented.”
Nice selective editing.
In early 2021 the DNR, operating out of Donetsk from the same building as the FSB, published an annual report confirming that the genocide was over, the armistice was largely holding, and Zelenskyy had made progress on Minsk. You still haven’t acknowledged that ombudsman-dnr.ru did indeed publish those conclusions and the only source to contradict it is the word of a proven serial liar called Denis Pushilin.
In the fall of 2021 NATO held a press conference confirming that Ukraine was a “partner” of NATO but didn’t meet “membership criteria”. Ukraine expressed disappointment but by February had conceded - publicly - the NATO “open door” wasn’t open anymore and rvrn if it was, it’s something they should walk through. That’s as clear a commitment to neutrality as was needed by Russia.
The reason Russia still complained was it didn’t want neutrality; it wanted surrender. It wanted to see Ukraine unable to even defend itself with its own resources let alone be defended via security assurances.
Putin doesn’t accept the need for a quid pro quo - Ukraine gave Soviet nukes to Russia in return for meaningful security guarantees. If Putin had been in charge he would’ve demanded the nukes without giving any guarantees.
In addition to all that, Russia insisted NATO withdraw its protection of NATO members in the Baltic because Russia found it intolerable that they couldn’t take an unhindered run at invading Lithuania.