Major Election Forecaster No Longer Favors Incumbent in Key Battleground State (Cortez-Masto, NV)

Townhall.com ^ | 9/28/22 | Rebecca Downs

[cotton1706]

Decision Desk HQ certainly gives a lot of weight to the power of the incumbency. In July, I covered how they regarded Sen. Ron Johnson's (R-WI) race to be "Solid Republican" at the time, despite Johnson being considered something of a vulnerable incumbent. Now that Johnson has his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, and polling has shown a close race, the race has changed slightly to "Likely Republican," but Johnson still has a 93.5 percent chance of winning.

Such a backdrop is crucial when it comes to Decision Desk HQ's recent update on the U.S. Senate race out of Nevada, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is considered even more vulnerable. The race is now regarded as a "Toss-Up," where Cortez Masto's percent of winning was down to 52.2 percent on Tuesday. She also has a strong Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, who is well known in Nevada, having previously served as the state's attorney general. He was at a 47.8 percent chance of winning.

[cotton1706]

Harry Reid's hand-picked successor won't be re-elected.

[ScottinVA]

Fingers crossed.

[Rockingham]

As polling shows more and more races that seemed to be in contention tipping to the GOP, the Democrats must withdraw funding from near certain losing candidates in order to concentrate their resources on candidates with a chance. For the GOP, an opposite process will become apparent, with funding moved to marginal Republican candidates who suddenly have a chance to win.

That these shifts are now starting to get underway some forty days out from election day is a good sign for the GOP and for the conservative cause. A Republican House and Senate seem increasingly likely -- and with more MAGA type members than leadership may prefer.

[struggle]

...incumbent...

[Theodore R.]

Maybe Laxalt can win. Didn’t his grandfather win the seat with just a few hundred votes to spare? But I distrust NV to do the right thing but surely trust them more than IL.

[SomeCallMeTim]

I was just in Nevada for a week and heard the ads. Without knowing much about the candidates, just going by the ads, the Democrat sounded wonderful. She was getting endorsements from key, ‘tough on crime’ Republicans. I didn’t see ANY ads for Laxalt. Wall to wall with the Democrat.

Since I returned, I’ve read reports saying Laxalt is closing the gap. I doubt them.

[ridesthemiles]

I keep wondering if she holds nightly seances with Harry to get her marching orders.