Posted on 09/25/2022 12:35:05 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Ahead of the November midterm elections, voters widely favor the Republican candidate in competitive House districts crucial to GOP efforts to flip the chamber, a new poll indicates.
Among those living in congressional districts rated at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, registered voters favor Republican candidates by 55 to 34 percent, according to a poll produced for ABC News/Washington Post by Langer Research Associates. In heavily Democratic districts, Democrats lead by 35 points, “pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent,” the poll notes.
Accounting for all respondents, 47 percent would vote for the Republican candidate and 46 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate if the House election were held the day of the survey, September 21.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
So I'm wary of being too excited about polls.
We can take the House *and* the Senate.
Exactly. Let’s hope this holds in the Senate races, and there is not much vote splitting between the House districts and Senate races in that state. I don’t care if we lose the Senate races in CT and OR by double digits, as long as we win the ones in PA, GA, and NV.
Wrong, and completely wrong. Trump was not only NOT widely favored to win those five states, but he was trailing in 4 of the 5, per the vast majority of mainstream polls, except for the Republican leaning Trafalgar.
Trump was “widely favored” in five states on election night. But all five states stopped counting. When they resumed the following morning, Biden was suddenly “widely favored” in all five states.
So I’m wary of being too excited about polls.
—
Yes. We are justified in thinking there will be vote fraud.
At the same time, the fraud was not statewide but localized to districts that were not competitive.
The key is are these competitive districts compromised.
On the Senate side, the fraud machine has a much better chance as those are statewide and they can stuff the ballot box in their leftist enclaves.
Could be very, very bad news for Dems.
The ‘Generic Ballot’ takes into account overall vote totals. The ‘overvote’ among Dems, means some Dem areas will vote almost totally Dem, skewing the popular vote totals toward Dems. You saw some of this in the 2016 Presidential Race. Hillary won the nationwide popular vote by about 2% due to CA, NY, MA, WA, going very heavily Dem, but Trump won the Electoral Vote by a comfortable margin.
Fortunately we’re dealing with individual districts and it looks like Republicans are set to do very well in districts that are competitive.
This is exactly why the generic ballot tells all. The dem districts are more concentrated with dems so that whenever the generic ballot has the Rs at negative 2 or better, they gain seats. R is at plus 2 now, (probably a lot more)
And, the poll of registered, not likely, voters, meaning the real margin will likely be even greater.
ABC/Washington Compost poll.
Therefore, add at least 15 % to the GOP numbers.
I follow real clear politics pretty closely, and Republicans start with the majority in the house before winning a single “toss-up” race.
Basically nearly a 100% chance we take the house.
they are more concentrated because of democrat desires for “black” seats.
I don't remember it that way. He was slightly behind or equal with Biden on Wisc, Mich and Penna. Georgia and Arizona he was slightly ahead, not widely. They cheat most when the polls are tight. So the polls were tight on Nov 2nd, 2020.
Yup. See here. It’s NBC, known liars, but here’s the various state polls on 2 Nov 2020:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/presidential-polls
Thank you for correcting the right-wing misinformation about polling with actual polling facts.
Every democrat running for election is trying to focus on these issues:
1. Orange Man Bad.
2. Abortion Good.
3. Orange Man Really Bad.
4. Did we mention Orange Man Bad?
It is at least somewhat effective with their base, and so it cannot be dismissed as a bad strategy.
I disagree that it is right-wing disinformation. The actual polling, such as even coming out now, is LEFT wing disinformation.
But just because they lie, doesn’t mean we do.
Trump won 2020! See 2000 Mules to how he was cheated.
I didn't actually watch TV on election eve, as I was too depressed and pessimistic. I expected a steal.
So I went to bed early. The next morning, I checked the news and read that the voted had stopped in five states, with the results unexpectedly flipped.
True,but nevertheless,many like to say the generic is bunk and its the individual race polls that matter, when in fact the generic is the best barometer of seat changes and since the dems are concentrated in cities with 60 and 70% dems, even a less than 50% for republicans can mean republican pick ups. Been that way as long as i have tracked since the 90s.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.