“Bleak” is too strong a word and signals that the author is a Democrat shill
In close Senate races, Rs are ahead in FL, GA, NC, NV, OH and WI. They are a bit behind in AZ and PA.
The probable outcome is a net R pick-up of 1 to 3 seats.
Regarding Arizona, McConnell wants Masters and Thiel to belly up to the bar. Write some checks guys! There is also the unknown factor of whether and how much Trump will spend on this year’s elections.
There are yet two other considerations: In AZ, the Rs have a terrific candidate for Governor (Keri Lake). There aren’t many ticket-splitters any more, and Keri Lake might just pull Masters over the finish line.
Conversely, the Ds have a major dud of a candidate in the PA Senate race. Dr. Oz should pull this one out. But, I don’t feel so good about Oz pulling Mastriano across the finish line.
I'd love to see Mastriano win but unfortunately, I think his J6 involvement hurts him with moderate swing voters.
I think your assessment is about right; the Rs should begin to pull away in the next three weeks in Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and prob. Nevada. They are still a small bit behind in PA and also in AZ, but I think the common sense, undecided vote will not go for Fetterman and Lake will win by a wide enough margin to drag Masters across the line. The open question is if Herschel Walker can get through the GA debate in a few weeks; if so, he should be able to ice that seat 5and the Rs end up at 52 or 53 in the Senate.