You are looking through Western eyes. Look through Russian eyes. Ukraine is a far bigger threat to Russia if it goes NATO: that is the Russian perception.
NATO is solely defensive? That has never been the Russian perception.
Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are not relevant to the Black Sea fleet. They are not relevant to Russia’s ability to get commodities to the market nor are they relevant for sailing said fleet unimpaired.
Russia will not play by moral laws when a red line is broken. Bottom line: 15% of Ukraine goes back to Russia next week. Then it becomes a game of who wants to continue fighting (and support fighting) into Russian territory— and what their response will be.
FAFO at a strategic level.
“Russia will not play by moral laws”
‘Nuff said. Except, it is PUTIN will not play by moral laws!
I’m looking at your incorrect statement “We are shocked that Russia will do whatever it has to in order to prevent the strategic red line of having a NATO member on its border?”
Russia has had NATO at its borders since 1997
Furthermore you talk of the black sea fleet. Well, Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece and Romania are all in NATO before 2004.
Finally, the Ukrainian request to join NATO was rejected in 2008 and was to be rejected again.
Why?
Germany and France did not want to “provoke Russia”.
Didn’t work.
If a country neighbouring Russia is not a part of NATO then Russia will invade it.