“We are shocked that Russia will do whatever it has to in order to prevent the strategic red line of having a NATO member on its border?”
NATO members that are now sharing borders with Russia: Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. NATO threatens no one. NATO is a defensive alliance to defend against an aggressor nation
You are looking through Western eyes. Look through Russian eyes. Ukraine is a far bigger threat to Russia if it goes NATO: that is the Russian perception.
NATO is solely defensive? That has never been the Russian perception.
Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are not relevant to the Black Sea fleet. They are not relevant to Russia’s ability to get commodities to the market nor are they relevant for sailing said fleet unimpaired.
Russia will not play by moral laws when a red line is broken. Bottom line: 15% of Ukraine goes back to Russia next week. Then it becomes a game of who wants to continue fighting (and support fighting) into Russian territory— and what their response will be.
FAFO at a strategic level.