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Hurricane Ian
NHC/NOAA ^ | 23 September 2022 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: NautiNurse

Prayers!…..stay safe!


401 posted on 09/25/2022 4:07:34 PM PDT by Guenevere (“If the foundations are destroyed, what can the righteous do?”)
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To: All


Mash image to enlarge

402 posted on 09/25/2022 4:11:34 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: All

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


403 posted on 09/25/2022 5:05:07 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

Barometer had a pretty good drop winds at 45 to 60 indicates its finally strengthening. I would be the eye is better formed than it has been. Took forever to finaly start forming and strengthening.


404 posted on 09/25/2022 5:08:26 PM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
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To: NautiNurse

My post from a couple days ago about a large surge going into Tampa Bay is becoming more likely

if the eye stays just offshore and moves inland just north SW winds would push the water into the Bay


405 posted on 09/25/2022 5:11:38 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Tampa area surge impacts
The Tampa Bay region is located on the west coast of Florida and is home to more than 3 million people, according to a recent census count.

The major coastal counties that make up the metro include Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee.

Historical data from NOAA shows the Tampa Bay region has not experienced a major storm surge from a significant hurricane in more than 100 years.

A study by the University of South Florida found that flooding of the Tampa Bay metro depends on a storm’s exact angle of approach. A storm south of the entrance of the bay can lead to a northeast flow, which works to limit a significant water rise. A storm near or slightly to the north of the bay’s entrance can lead to a substantial pileup of water and catastrophic flooding.

https://www.foxweather.com/learn/florida-gulf-coast-storm-surge-threat


406 posted on 09/25/2022 5:13:10 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: NautiNurse

I’m planning to call a tree company tomorrow and get my big tree into the scheduler to be taken down. The way things look now (I’m in Pensacola), I think it will survive this, but it could get weakened, so the sooner I get to it, the better.

There are big trees all over my neighborhood, so Heaven only knows what will happen.


407 posted on 09/25/2022 5:15:05 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (FBI out of Florida!)
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To: NautiNurse

Good evening.

“Sarasota Bay had beached manatees in the bottom of the dry bay bed.”

There’s video of this...

So everything drained. Bayous, canals etc

When Tampa Bay drained it stranded two manatees. (That I know of)

A guy who was boarding up his condo for the hurricane near Davis Island saw that 2 manatees were stranded.

(Close to the house Jeter built)

He got eight of his buddies, two blue roof canvas and two Ford pickup trucks, drove out to the middle of the Bay, rolled the critters on the tarps, lifted them up into the trucks. It was very difficult even for those big guys.

Took the animals to the Florida Aquarium to ride out the storm.

5.56mm


408 posted on 09/25/2022 5:19:32 PM PDT by M Kehoe (Quid Pro Joe and the Ho got to go.)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Good luck getting the tree taken down. My tree service stays booked 3 months out, and he takes off September, heads out west.


409 posted on 09/25/2022 5:26:44 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: M Kehoe

I saw video of people dragging stranded manatees. Another of people strolling out into Tampa Bay. Gobsmacked, amazing.


410 posted on 09/25/2022 5:29:20 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: janetjanet998

Yes, Tampa Bay has escaped the worst-case scenario for a hundred years. We’ve had several near-misses too. We shall soon learn what fate Ian shall bring upon us.


411 posted on 09/25/2022 5:33:26 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

GFS , the western outliner, has come a decent way east since the 12z run at 18z

The EURO which has been the eastern outliner with a hit on Tampa Bay with the 12z run, has nudged a bit west


412 posted on 09/25/2022 6:28:08 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

I expect substantial forecast track maneuvers through tomorrow.


413 posted on 09/25/2022 7:01:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: All

Hillsborough County (Tampa) schools are closed Mon-Thurs. Pinellas Co. (St. Pete) closed Tues-Wed.


414 posted on 09/25/2022 7:08:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: NautiNurse

Got kids and grandkids on Davis Islands. House is one of the highest above Surge elevation but lots of cars and toys subject to damage. Was just there.


415 posted on 09/25/2022 7:10:32 PM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: All

Manatee and Sarasota County schools are open Monday.


416 posted on 09/25/2022 7:10:54 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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To: musicman

BFLR


417 posted on 09/25/2022 7:12:33 PM PDT by musicman (The future is just a collection of successive nows.)
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To: NautiNurse

What the heck. I’ve been checking on Ian’s progress all day- all over the place. The question of course- when will it turn? Meanwhile, my batteries from last year are good.

I was watching people scramble for water this week and realized Charley was the only hurricane that took out our water supply in Seminole County. Power out for 2 weeks- even our (phone) land line was down. It was brutal. But we got through it with our neighbors. We shared supplies and food, lots of hilarity and cookouts. We’ve had plenty of hurricanes since- none took out the water.


418 posted on 09/25/2022 7:17:13 PM PDT by SE Mom
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To: NautiNurse

University of Tampa and Ringling College of Art cancelled classes all week.


419 posted on 09/25/2022 7:17:55 PM PDT by numberonepal (WWG1WGA)
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To: SE Mom

Thanks for checking in. No good news with the forecast track. If Ian lands on or just north of St. Pete, that is worst case for Tampa Bay. Local Tampa Bay seasoned weatherman looks worried tonight.


420 posted on 09/25/2022 7:29:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
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