My post from a couple days ago about a large surge going into Tampa Bay is becoming more likely
if the eye stays just offshore and moves inland just north SW winds would push the water into the Bay
Tampa area surge impacts
The Tampa Bay region is located on the west coast of Florida and is home to more than 3 million people, according to a recent census count.
The major coastal counties that make up the metro include Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee.
Historical data from NOAA shows the Tampa Bay region has not experienced a major storm surge from a significant hurricane in more than 100 years.
A study by the University of South Florida found that flooding of the Tampa Bay metro depends on a storm’s exact angle of approach. A storm south of the entrance of the bay can lead to a northeast flow, which works to limit a significant water rise. A storm near or slightly to the north of the bay’s entrance can lead to a substantial pileup of water and catastrophic flooding.
https://www.foxweather.com/learn/florida-gulf-coast-storm-surge-threat