Posted on 09/21/2022 2:02:59 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Ukraine ping
Kamil Galeev, a young Tatar from Kazan, on the political risks to Putin’s continued tenure of a total mobilization. Background note: The current Russian imperial capital is Moscow. Until Nicholas II was killed, that capital was St. Petersburg.
I find it impossible to take seriously “this time Putin/Russia is in trouble” articles from a number of posters on FR.
I know nothing about Russian warehouses or logistics, so will file this away and check later.
yesterday I thought about the 100 times or so we have been told Putin is dying of cancer.
And yet there he was at the SCO in Samarkand two days ago, standing on stage, alone, without a podium, fielding questions from reporters for 45 minutes, answering completely extemporaneously, in complete sentences and fully-formed, logical replies. Joe Biden should be so lucky to have whatever disease Putin supposedly has.
Again, we have seen SO MANY LIES, you and others are on a very short leash.
It’s interesting. My only quibble is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia have ever been big on “NCO’s”. At least, not in the way we would normally understand them in the West.
“4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs”
Russia has neither.
I’ve known guys who have died of cancer. They don’t feel too bad, they get up on their feet and do things, and then the next week they’re finished. So what you say does not necessarily disprove that Putin has terminal cancer - he might, or he might not.
And yet there he was at the SCO in Samarkand two days ago,
——-
Not one of the Ukie war cheerleaders even know about Putin’s speech in Samarkand and the HUGE support he received….nor does western MSM, apparently….
Yeah! Russians and Ukrainians will kill each other.
I don’t care.
Good gravy, its like you asking me I should care about Iraq or Iran in a war.
Go Team! Kill each other as fast and efficiently as you can.
They’ll keep making claims and no doubt they’ll keep saying “Stay tuned. One day we might be right about Putin having cancer.”
There are *not” millions of young males being mobilized.
Why do these journalists make these stories up?
300,000. All reservists or military specialists.
And today he was in another country. I couldn’t do as much as he does.
Some nobody’s Tweet is not news.
I’m so happy the Clintons sold all that Uranium to Russia. Just nuke Ukraine, be done with it
Well that was a fine waste of time. What orifice did you pull all of that speculation from? Here’s the release actually outlining the plan. It will help to correct most of what you just wrote.
MOSCOW, September 21. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday declared a partial mobilization plan. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu clarified that a total of 300,000 men - about 1% of the mobilization potential - would be called up for military service.
Mobilization will concern those who have already served in the army, primarily those with combat experience and a military specialty. University students and conscripts will enjoy exemption, Shoigu said. TASS has summarized the gist of what is known at this point about the first partial mobilization in Russia’s recent history.
Why is mobilization necessary?
- Russia in Ukraine is confronted with “virtually the entire military machine of the collective West,” with the length of the engagement line exceeding a thousand kilometers, Putin said.
- The goals of the military operation, according to the president, remain unchanged - “the liberation of the entire territory of Donbass.”
- Mobilization, as Shoigu explained, is carried out to ensure proper control of the already liberated territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, as well as parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
How many reservists will be called up
- Partial mobilization will apply to 300,000 reservists, or approximately 1% of the mobilization potential: those with military service experience and a military specialty. There are almost 25 million such men in Russia, Shoigu said.
- Russia plans to mobilize about the same number of reservists as Ukraine has already drafted into the army, Shoigu said.
Who will be called up for service
In his televised address to the nation Putin said that “only citizens who are currently in reserve - above all, those who served in the armed forces and have certain military specialties - are subject to conscription under partial mobilization.”
- Mobilization will concern those with combat experience in the first place, Shoigu said on the Rossiya-24 TV channel.
- Recruitment of students is ruled out “under any circumstance,” he stressed.
- Mobilization will not apply to the conscripts to be drafted starting from October 1. There are no plans for sending conscripts to the zone of the operation in Ukraine. They will continue to serve on Russian territory.
- Military-industrial complex employees will be granted a deferment from mobilization, as follows from Putin’s decree. Other specific categories of citizens entitled to a deferment and the procedure for granting it will be determined by the government.
How will the mobilization proceed?
- Partial mobilization in accordance with the presidential decree begins on September 21. No date of its termination is set.
- The number of draftees and the terms of draft from each specific region will be determined by the Defense Ministry. Their senior officials will be responsible for the appropriate arrangements.
- Due to partial mobilization the routine crash courses for reservists will be canceled.
- Conscription will not be instant, but proceed but according to a plan. Shoigu stressed that there would be “nothing like a ‘wide-cut harvester approach’ to the issue.”
- All those mobilized will undergo additional training before being sent to the zone of the military operation.
Status of those mobilized
- The mobilized will enjoy the same status and monetary allowance as the military personnel under the contract.
- The already existing contracts will be valid until the end of the partial mobilization period. Both contract servicemen and those mobilized can be dismissed from service upon reaching the service age limit, for health reasons, or if they have been sentenced to imprisonment.
- Volunteers participating in the operation and the fighters of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics’ militia will have the status identical to that of Russian military personnel.
What the law says
- The law assumes that exemption from mobilization will be granted to citizens identified according to the rules determined by the government, temporarily unfit for service for health reasons, single fathers and fathers with many children, guardians or trustees of underage brothers and sisters, and a number of other categories. Postponement is also granted to senators and State Duma members.
- Other Russians can also be granted a reprieve in accordance with a presidential decree (this time it was established for defense industry workers).
- Mobilization also cannot apply to those who have an unexpunged or outstanding conviction for committing a serious crime.
- Those who are in reserve, but have not been called up, can be sent to work for the armed forces and other troops as civilian personnel. The Defense Ministry has not yet announced such plans.
- Citizens enrolled in the military register from the beginning of mobilization do not have the right to leave their place of residence without permission from the military commissariats. The authorities have not yet specified whether this provision will apply to those not subject to partial mobilization.
Wait a few quarters to see where the economic trends are going. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on exporting resources to buy the technology and parts it needs to function. The US and European economies are more varied and robust in going with business cycles. the Russian economy is already starting to show cracks. It takes a year or two for these problems to develop and get visibility.
There are a few talking about Russia being in trouble meaning looking at the long term picture for Russia. Between the military, politics, and economy, it is getting bad for Russia fast. This winter is going to hurt the US, Europe and much of the world. Russia is going to get hurt too. The rest of the world can take it better than Russia can. Next year, everyone will be hurting, Russia will be hurting more, have few allies, business partners slow to return calls, the same screwed up military, and a lot of really pissed off enemies.
Putin needed to win fast or risk the continuation of the Russian Federation. He did not win fast.
Reality: It is now about 5 hours from 210 days and KaPutin still has not taken Kviv.
“It’s interesting. My only quibble is that neither the Soviet Union nor Russia have ever been big on “NCO’s”. At least, not in the way we would normally understand them in the West.”
That is very true. NCOs are the backbone of a military. Moreover, in the US military delegation of authority and command is routine, such that the mission is understood throughout, and lower echelon troops have the wherewithal and flexibility to carry out and complete the mission absent superior officers.
I’ve known some, as well. One week they’ll be mowing the lawn or digging post holes and the next week...dead.
Then there was Xi of China and Modi of India telling Putin to chill, and find an acceptable end to the war with minimum loss of life or damage to infrastructure. I think it was Modi who told him this was not the time to wage such a war.
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