[Cronos]

"Europe" - well you need to look at individual countries.

All European countries have sufficient physical inventories for home use

Most European countries bar Germany and Bulgaria have enough for industry

[Rockingham]

True, the effects of the energy crisis will vary according to country and weather, where the physical inventories are, and who owns or controls them. In concept though, Europe has an integrated energy market and free trade internally, so it will be hard for better off countries to isolate themselves from constrained energy supplies in other countries. And it is anyone's guess as to what kind of share the pain directives may issue from the EU's mandarins in Brussels.

In the long term, the most devastating effect of the supply crisis may be on Europe's energy market and its financial and contractual underpinnings. Due to the wild rise in price, a number of futures and options contracts for fuel are going into default, with hardships for the companies involved and their lenders. Force majure and arbitration provisions are being invoked, which touches off further price and supply uncertainty and potential follow on effects for end users. At some point, central banks and regulators are likely to finance and impose a resolution, with a hit to public finances.

One good effect though may be a rethink of Europe's foolish attempt to rapidly shift toward reliance on green energy. Human nature being what it is, experience, especially painful experience, is often the best teacher of hard lessons.