Posted on 09/21/2022 4:04:57 AM PDT by Cronos
Putin is no doubt hoping that a hard winter, recession, and energy shortfalls will crack NATO and EU unity. So far, although Germany has lagged in meeting its obligations to Ukraine, Poland, Britain, the US and other NATO allies have taken up the slack. Meanwhile, Russia’s state finances, domestic economy, and industrial and military production are in decline due to sanctions. My guess is that Putin and Russia are going to lose, with Putin out by spring as it becomes obvious that his Ukraine war is lost on the field and in economic terms.
Sorry, fellow, but the German industrial inflation is close to 50%, highest since 1940s. It spells consumer hyperinflation in months, and the cascade collapse of the whole industries.
Maybe not WW III if it has to include China. China is playing "Let's watch you and him fight." It would get to pick up the pieces of Siberia it desires, and have no significant rivals after a true West vs Russia war.
—”How many enlist to the US Army from Malibu?”
More than you would think.
I served with one; his business card simply said:
J. ———
Malibu-—San Francisco
The CO AKA Pineapple was from Hawaii.
2% from Moscow and SpB is a lot as well.
Putin is losing to Ukraine.
He won’t last a month against a NATO force.
China waits for the northern barbarian federation to implode and then they will take over.
The Chinese did it in 300 BC against the Xiongnu.
They did it in the 500s against the Gokturk, the Uyghur, the Rouran, the Jurchen.
They did it in 1400 against the Mongols and in 1900 against the Qung.
Theyll do it now against the Muscowites
Russia will lose like it did in 1610, in 1917 and today
Russia isn’t supported by China or India in the Putin invasion of Ukraine.
This was made abundantly clear at the SCO meeting
I’m not sure there’s enough airline capacity for flights of flight to cause a direct military shortfall of available bodies. Russia has about 2 million reservists and around 31 million in the “mobilization human reserve”. Even if half the 300k initially called up bug out, and we can include other modes of transport, too, there are plenty more to draw from. There is also the benefit of not having to contend with the most unwilling to fight, in the active force. “Spit them out like midges” I believe Pooty said...
Of course if this goes on and Pooty does lose a substantial portion of the reserve and extended reserve to flight out of Russia, that causes multiple problems. But, that’s an if, and the only way I can think of to judge it would be to get a grasp on what the actual demand is for transport out. Possibly someone who knows the travel industry in Russia well could get a glimmer by looking at pricing, website page hits, and so on. That would have to be considered in the context that it takes a lot, in most cases, to really decide to leave for what might be a very long time, or for good. And, most of Russia is quite poor, so, money would be a big issue for many, too.
The Russia you envision will be is the serfdom of the Czars.
Russians have proven on several historic occasions that Mother Russia can’t make do on her own. Her people are serfs that ate incapable of existence in the 21st century.
Russia couldn’t fathom and could not manufacture panty hose or acetominiprin or vice grips, or fax machines or personal computers. Russian inventiveness was totally used up making weapons that we have seen are not up to the intended task.
The future of Russia is decline and doom
Standard data sources report the German consumer inflation rate as just under 8% and expected to hit double digits. Driven by energy costs, producer prices are last reported as 45.8%. Perhaps the Germans, even as stubborn as they are, will nevertheless now take the lesson that trusting Russia is foolish and that renewable energy may be virtuous but is a poor way to run an economy.
What it has to do with trusting Russia?:) How do you see producer prices not to proportionally translate into consumer market?:)
In order to keep sales, industrial firms usually try to absorb or cut production costs so as to moderate prices to the consumer. I am not familiar enough with the German PPI to know to what degree it relies on volatile market prices. In any event, European winter gas reserves are said to be above normal levels, so energy prices in the market may soon ease.
What was the problem with that reliance? NSW II is ready to pump:)
The pipeline is fine. The problem is with the murderous Russian tyrant who controls the flow.
If the EU goes to an essentially command / wartime economy, immediate economic problems can be largely buffered and deferred. That cannot be maintained forever, of course, or they can end up like Venezuela or the Norks. Given their vast wealth available, I think the EU has ~5 years to work with. Blowing the lid off full and rapid development of their existing resources will be key. Whether they do that, of course, is another question.
Don’t you feel dishonesty in your arguments? Unreliability means no gas.
St Pete & Moscow, aren’t Malibu. They are the educated/professional class and not just the elites.
In the US, they would be the any major metro over 2,000,000 people. There are lots of “some college” metros going into the US military.
I watched the interview of SU-30 pilot that was shot down and captured. That guy was about 45, and was about as uneducated as I have ever seen flying an airplane. Any airplane, let alone the highest tech they have. Maybe he was playing dumb on purpose, but the guy LOOKED dumb. That is hard to fake.
The Russian military is not sending their best.
You remind me Europeans who think that Ukrainian refugees didn’t see the shower before. Do you realize that the Russian on average is much better educated than American regardless the location? I have no idea what pilots did you see in the Ukrainian propaganda. You normally need a master’s degree to fly in the Russian AF.
2% of the Russian military, not 2% of Moscow/St Pete.
2% is not a lot of anything.
The only people in Moscow/St. Pete that know someone currently serving in the Russian military, recently moved their from the sticks.
The majority of the Russian military is from areas where outhouses are still a thing in 2022 (the Poor’s).
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