Basic Attrition Models Provide Insight Into Russian Woes In Russia-Ukraine War

Forbes ^ | September 20, 2022 | Vikram Mittal

[Dr. Franklin]

Meanwhile, a much simpler model may be able to answer some of the questions about the Russia-Ukraine war, such as why the Russians were so ineffective and what will likely happen as the war continues. This simple combat model is based on the Lanchester equations, which were developed in 1916. The Lanchester equations consist of a series of differential equations that approximate the rate of combat losses for two opposing armies. Although somewhat basic, these equations have been successfully used over the last century to model attrition warfare, similar to the conflict in Ukraine.

...

When the differential equations are solved, they indicate that the Russians had a strong advantage at the start of the war. Indeed, they destroyed a number of Ukrainian targets during the first few weeks. However, their effectiveness continually diminished as the war progressed at a rate much faster than the Ukrainian forces...

The models further indicate that at approximately six months, the war would change as the Russians would lose their numerical advantage. This coincides well with the shift in the war with the Ukrainians seizing back large amounts of territory. It would also explain the Kremlin’s strong push to recruit 50,000 new soldiers to replace their combat losses.

These models also provide insight into the likely outcome of the Russian plan to field new “volunteer” battalions. Since these troops will be even less trained than the Russians forces currently in Ukraine, they will likely continue the use of unaimed fires. As a result, the surge in soldiers will see a similar trend where they achieve initial successes but long-term failures. Indeed, the models would indicate that the Russians’ best course of action would be to fully withdraw from Ukraine, extensive training, and a reinvasion a later date.

[MarMema]

Thanks! I stayed up and watched it last night.

[MarMema]

When I posted that, I was seeing it as an indicator for what was coming...not suggesting those troops would be ominous.
Under a declaration of war by Russia, Belarus is obligated to join the party.

[MarMema]

No. I can’t think of any other time Russia has gone after neighbors. Maybe you missed the change from the Soviet union to Russia.

And yes it was very bad. Grosny was razed.

If you had seen the videos of Chechens sawing off fingers of a six yr old they had kidnapped from Moscow, along with many others, you might understand Russian anger at the time.
I was in Moscow, in fact hitchhiking a lot with a 3 yo, at the time.

Things don’t happen in a vaccuum, and Russia has reasons for their behavior. I guess we do also for the numerous wars we have instigated around the world.

[Dr. Franklin]

Under a declaration of war by Russia, Belarus is obligated to join the party.

Lukashenko is obligated to follow Putin. Like Biden, he is in power due to massive voting fraud and is quite unpopular. Ordinary Belorussians don't want to fight in Putin's war against Ukraine. Poland is working quite diligently clandestinely to undermine Lukashenko, and his regime. Belarus declaring war on Ukraine to assist Russian revanchism likely results in revolution in Belarus.

[Dr. Franklin]

No. I can’t think of any other time Russia has gone after neighbors. Maybe you missed the change from the Soviet union to Russia.

In January 1919, Russia attacked and occupied the Polish city of Wilno, now known as Vilnius, starting the Russo-Polish war. The ramifications of the conclusion of that war, the Treaty of Riga, are again manifesting themselves in Ukraine. FYI, that war is sometimes reffered to as the Polish-Bolshevik War, or the Polish-Soviet war. The latter is technically incorrect as the Soviet Union was not created until 28 December 1922 by the Treaty on the Creation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , well after the 1921 Treaty of Riga.

[MarMema]

Wow. We have attacked many many more countries far more recently than over a century ago. 😂😂

Funny.

The Soviet union saved us all from Nazis once and Russia is doing the world another huge favor today.

[Dr. Franklin]

The Soviet union saved us all from Nazis once and Russia is doing the world another huge favor today.

Buffalo Chips!

The Soviet Union conspired with the Nazis to start WWII to regain lost territory. It saved no one. People in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and the Baltics did not want to join the Soviet Union, yet they were forced into it. Once again Russia has started a war to regain lost territory. They even tried to get the Poles to join them in dividing Ukraine. The Poles declined the offer.

[MarMema]

If not for the USSR, we would be speaking German today.

https://dominicoto.substack.com/p/how-the-soviets-saved-the-world-from

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/the-soviet-union-helped-save-the-world-from-hitler-a7020926.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/05/08/dont-forget-how-the-soviet-union-saved-the-world-from-hitler/

https://ushypocrisy.com/2020/04/06/75-years-ago-the-soviet-union-saved-the-world-from-hitlers-nazi-regime/

[MarMema]

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2019-06-18/ty-article/.premium/the-upcoming-neo-nazi-concert-in-ukraine-that-no-one-is-talking-about/0000017f-e310-d804-ad7f-f3fabfc70000

https://t.me/UkraineNaziWatch/386

https://thesaker.is/they-tell-you-that-we-are-nazis/

https://youtu.be/5SBo0akeDMY

[MarMema]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YbIH7MLkJOA

https://youtu.be/jiBXmbkwiSw

Ukraine was, in fact, slated to become the center for neonazis around the world.
“Ukraine above all” was their slogan.

[Dat]

Never thought I would see the day that someone on FR would praise the USSR and not be considered a disruptor or a shill.

[Dr. Franklin]

Never thought I would see the day that someone on FR would praise the USSR and not be considered a disruptor or a shill.

Well there are so many other Russian trolls from their troll farms posting here they can give a false sense of acceptance. The propaganda campaign is obvious. The indisputable historical fact is that Stalin conspired with Hitler to start WWII and divide Central Europe between them. Stalin played both ends against the middle at the expense of millions, and was permitted to divide Europe at the end of WWII. Those singing the praises of the former USSR obviously don't remember living in it.

[MarMema]

The USSR has been gone for over 20 years.

[MarMema]

Nonsense. Anyone believe that incredible fiction besides you?

[reformedliberal]

... like a rosy picture....
________________________________________
It’s a model. It can be manipulated.
Like a pandemic model.

Like a climate model.

Like Dem polls with a +7-8D baked in.

[MarMema]

https://t.me/c/1567469683/157302