I estimate that most people didn’t know there were so many estimates.
two down quarters, 3rd quarter about flat, then at least two more down quarters says the CEO of Bank of America.
Another White House ‘victory’ this afternoon? /s
I’m actually surprised the Fed hasn’t “revised” how they calculate the GDP to keep that number well into positive territory. After all, you don’t want to alarm the peasants.
Thanks for posting, hadn’t seen this one before. I ‘estimate’ this to be in line with expectations, it has a good beat and I can dance to it so I give it 3 garden variety recession stars.
What are the chances every griffting politician in d.c. has a short position on crashing stocks
After all, they are obviously finance savvy and HAD to have known all the $$$ $pent in the I.R.Act would cause a massive drop in stocks.
Ever see the movie
The Big Short
. ?
( you should watch it ,
EVERY american should watch it).
Has the “inflation reduction act” kicked in?
If it’s not another quarter of negative growth they’ll declare victory over inflation and happy days are here again
Whew. And I thought this was a recession.
Good thing we have such a definition.
/s
Walmart and other large retailers have been cancelling BILLIONS of dollars in orders during this quarter. How in the world does that not play into this estimate?
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9. After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent.
In one week, it went from 1.3% to 0.5%. We still have two more weeks to go.
There! See we’re NOT in a recession you silly goose!
This will add to the “evidence” that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are working and that we will achieve a “soft landing” (timed just right for the election) so they can have smaller hikes than advertised.
Stock market (temporarily) rebounds.
Isn’t all of this a scam though?
I mean, if the numbers were a hard calculation, there would be no mystery when they came out. Other economists would pool the relevant data, do the math, and release the number before the report came out, and traders would pay to get it ahead of time. But nobody ever has it beforehand, and after it comes out, can anybody check the work of the people who turn it out, to see if they failed to carry a number over?
Basically, this kind of looks like they wait until the big day, release a random number nobody can check, the markets go, “Oh my God, we didn’t see this coming!,” move in ways people profit from, and then they repeat, over and over. Once in a while, they look back, and say, you know what, lets change that last one.
I find it hard to believe that one, the elites aren’t given the number before it came out (and it is designed to facilitate their profit), and even if they weren’t it is impossible they would not deploy the domestic surveillance to find it, so they could trade off it.
How can anybody think this system is not designed to transfer the wealth of the average trader to the elites, while allowing them just enough chance to grow wealth to keep playing the game.
I mean I have seen the domestic intelligence operation. Nobody in this system is operating honestly, or by any sort of laws or rules.