Posted on 09/12/2022 8:30:24 PM PDT by John W
The final polls in the 2020 presidential election overstated Joe Biden’s strength, especially in a handful of states.
The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race; instead, Trump won it easily.
In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
But the Democrats’ strength in the Senate campaign depends partly on their strength in some of the same states where polls exaggerated Democratic support two years ago, including the three that I mentioned above: North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Nate Cohn, The New York Times’ chief political analyst, calls it “a warning sign” — for both the Democratic Party and for the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Scroll down to the first sentence of the 4th paragraph.
It’s all you need to know about this NY Times garbage.
WI, NC, and OH senate races aren’t even in play for the Dems. They live in an alternate universe. It’s really dangerous how our country is so divided and everyone sticks to their little bubble. At one time, Americans could have conversations despite their difference and just move on with their lives, but not it IS their life.
The only way the polls could have predicted Biden’s 2020 “victory” is if they were in on the theft.
If we lose in November, the current Republic is done. Sadly, there will be only one recourse.
What decent rational person would take an unsolicited call from a stranger and then share their private political opinions. For all you know it might be the FBI and if they don’t like your opinions, they may be raiding your house at 5:00am. Republicans hang up on pollsters.
One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
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*You’re* the problem!
Polls don’t measure anything anymore. They are designed to influence people that don’t want to think for themselves.
The polls are part of the propaganda. They are always wrong, on purpose.
If I remember correctly Hillary was going to win...
Conservatives don’t answer phones.
Nanzi flat out said “Don’t believe the numbers on election night. There is no way a Republican will be sworn in January”.
She already KNEW what was going to be done.
Thou. Shalt. Not. Steal.
I want Washington State so bad I can taste it. I think we have a real shot. I think we take NV as well
Especially now that the FBI is rounding up MAGA, why would we talk to pollsters? I’d talk only to Richard Barris and maybe not even him.
When the demonRAT Party steals an election, all those duplicate and fake banana ballots tend to throw the polls all out of whack.
Their polls haven’t just been crap for 2 years. Remember how wildly wrong they were in 2016? Also far from being mostly accurate, their 2018 polls were wildly wrong again as Republicans gained Senate seats....which the polls claimed would never happen.
The most accurate pollster for the last several years Rich Baris of the Big Data Poll has explained many times why they’re so wrong.
- They don’t get representative samples for one.
- Secondly, the kinds of people who are more likely to respond...indeed who are eager to respond....to pollsters are disproportionately Democrats.
- Also, there is a response bias in that Trump voters know they are likely to be demonized or discriminated against if they openly say they support Trump so they just lie to pollsters.
- Also knowing how biased the corporate media and their pollsters are, Right leaning voters often refuse to talk to them
All this is in addition to those media outlets and their pollsters desperately wanting to push the pro Democrat narrative.....ie they are push polls intended to discourage MAGA voters.
It is impossible to have a conversation today. Intellectual honesty is dead.
You used to be able to talk. If a fact or event came out that was inconvenient to their side, Liberals used to acknowledge that and be willing to discuss it. No so Leftists. They will simply dig their heels in and refuse to acknowledge the fact or reality if its politically inconvenient for them. You can’t discuss anything with people who obviously dishonest.
Their polls are intended to gaslight Republicans into staying home on Election Day by convincing them that the GOP "red wave" is collapsing and Democrats have turned things around. Their proof will be the silence coming from Republican leaders.
But, they still have to wink and nod to Democrats to not fall for it themselves. That's what this article is telling their side.
-PJ
To paraphrase one of the smartest people I ever worked with, “all polls are wrong. Some are useful”.
Statement originally describing models of chemical processes but I think applies to polls as well.
The polls indicate only one thing - that the democrats will cheat again......
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