Posted on 09/09/2022 7:01:33 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
(AFP) — Ukraine on Thursday claimed a military breakthrough in its counter-offensive against Russian invaders as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on a surprise visit to Kyiv, unveiled another $2.8 billion in military aid.
Ukraine said its forces made gains in the north, the south and the east, prying back land seized by Russia which had hoped for a swift victory when it attacked nearly seven months ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Is there anything new out about a retreat from Izyum?
Just rumors. Time will tell. The main thing is to cut off the supply routes and that has been done.
Here is the original video link from yesterday:
Ukrainian artillery strike foils a Russian attempt to cross Dnipro using a pontoon bridge.
It can be argued that your viewpoint is erroneous
The American money in question is in error considered by neo isolationists to be unacceptable expense.
Viewed differently and correctly, the American money is not expense but rather investment. That is by investing money in the Ukraine war with Russia, America is making an investment for which there can and will be a large dividend.
That dividend is the destruction of the perpetual Russian enemy for some notable period of time.
This is an expense. Its not an investment. Russia can keep this up indefinitely. The Ukrainians will need to get troops from some other source since their population is much smaller. I expect both sides will hire mercenaries if it drags on a few years. An investment means that you have built something of use. An expense is when you are merely maintaining something. The US is not building anything. The Russians are likely to walk away with a third of Ukraine and total control over the Black sea. They will have a more defensible position in the south. The US will have a damaged country with little to no economy. Who will want to invest in Ukraine unless there is a peace treaty. America lost access to east Ukraine. And they will need to arm that border like it was 1955 again.
And Russia is going nowhere. You have not gotten rid of Russia. You have not even harmed Russia. You may have slowed them down a bit. But they will own every part of Ukraine that they need. And Europe will have a DMZ on its borders.
By the way, this whole thing puts Turkey in the cat bird seat. The US will need to do everything it can to make sure that Turkey keeps control of the Black Sea access. Turkey has become very important all of a sudden. Expect the US to give Turkey anything they want for as long as this war continues.
Gas is a problem, but a temporary one. Everyone and his brother is doing LNG infrastucture like mad. Its that wonderful free market! If you are a “gas guy” you can name your price right now. We may have already seen that LNG prices have peaked. By next September I suspect that there will be more LNG around than anyone can use.
Oil is not gas. This is an international commodity and was never constrained by being tied to Russian pipelines. Prices have been crashing lately as there is a global glut, and are now at or below prewar levels.
Its kind of odd then that the Russians must have cooperated in this contrivance.
Russia (the post-Soviet version) has never been in such a large war. And Russia can only keep this up by going “total war” as Ukraine has, declare a war economy and general mobilization. Russia does not have infinite resources at all. They are not able to even replace their equipment losses through current production without years-long military-industrial investment.
—> the Zeepers seem to be more unhinged than usual lately.
And that is really saying something!
—> That is by investing money in the Ukraine war with Russia, America is making an investment for which there can and will be a large dividend.
It is US and European military supplies being depleted.
China’s got to be watching and licking their chops.
That one if the things I hate about this war. So much disinformation going on.
Even if what you said were true (which it isn't), anything that denies Russia victory is productive, even more so if it is not costing any American lives.
Gas and oil are very expensive if you are Japan or Europe. You are looking at this wrong. Yes Brent oil shot up from $75 at the beginning of the year to $91 now. It had been over $120 in between. But you are looking at this in terms of the US dollar. Now the Euro has sunk to par with the Dollar. It takes over 140 Yen to buy a single Dollar. And the Russian Ruble has gained 40%. For Japan and Europe oil is very expensive now. Europe will be in a recession if they are not already there. And they are forced to raise interest rates quickly to keep pace with the dollar and price of oil.
LNG is very expensive compared to an open Nat gas pipeline. Its like comparing a vending machine to a tap. LNG is far slower and more expensive. Plus just wait for one of those things to explode. You know its going to happen. Won’t that be loud. And when it comes to defense. Just think what an easy target LNG is. Its like throwing an aerosol can into a camp fire.
The biggest differentiator seems to be that the Ukrainians are willing to fight.
Right US can't produce more. Or the outdated equipment given away like the M113's is really necessary.
“In most places both sides are too evenly matched for the fighting to be anything but a tough slog, even resembling WWI more than anything else.”
We are learning a lot about what a peer-to-peer conflict looks like. It is very different than any war we have fought in the last 50 years.
Missiles negate tech. Armor is vulnerable and you can’t send your $50 million planes and $500 million ships anywhere near to the front.
That reverts the conflict to infantry and artillery.
Even if what you said were true (which it isn’t), anything that denies Russia victory is productive, even more so if it is not costing any American lives.
Brent Crude in the last week pre-war was about exactly where it is now, and note that prices are heading down fast. There is an oil glut in progress as demand is down because of high prices and an economic downturn.
The problem with nat gas in pipelines is that you are tied to the supplier. Because of that you had better have the utmost confidence in the source. Everybody and his brother was warning the Germans about this for decades.
This uncertainty about sources is absolutely unacceptable in utility planning. And the consequences are as we see. A lesson learned, this must not happen again, ever. No Russia.
This is why it was a hard sell in California, back when the adults were in charge, to permit dependency on nat gas for generation. The utilities won their case when they managed to bring in three pipelines from three different gas basins for redundancy. This was decades ago. And none of them was from Russia! (well, one was from Texas).
Russia is over 4 times the population. They have more resources than any other country. They have the two largest trading partners in the world. And they are experienced fighters. They have been in wars almost continuously.
Russia has lost their McDonald’s and Starbucks. They will quickly adjust. They need no more trading partners than China and India. Both are long term huge trading partners. America and Europe has sold things to Russia that Russians don’t need.
This war is easy for Russia. They will win it. In that they will take the eastern part of Ukraine including all the Black Sea ports. They will create a DMZ that is easy to defend. Then they will negotiate with Europe to turn back on their pipelines. Europe will want their standard of living back. So they will deal.
Our CIA will throw a hissy-fit. They will tell Europe that America can sell them all the LNG they need. They will tell them that being a first world country is overrated. They will tell them how green it is to be poor. And Europe will deal anyway.
There is plenty of 155mm and HIMARS missiles. Thats the bulk of US aid to Ukraine. These are stocked for use by the US Army in an extended continental war vs...guess who?
Might as well use them, because there is no likely prospect that the US Army will be deployed in full force in a continental war anytime soon. Or if it is, it will be in the continental US, vs who? Might as well send these toys away.
Missile stocks are reported to be very low.
Rifles and equip are reported to be taken away from special forces.
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