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Maricopa County Recorder Forewarns That Democrats Will Lead On Election Night
AZ Free News ^

Posted on 09/07/2022 7:00:24 PM PDT by SoConPubbie

In an attempt to set voter expectations ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer shared that initial results would favor Democrats heavily.

Richer based his prediction on the voting patterns from November 2020 and last month’s primary election. Both elections first tabulated early ballots received the week beforehand, most of which voted for Democratic candidates. Then, the county tabulates early ballots dropped off the day before and on Election Day, as well as in-person ballots, most of which voted for Republican candidates.

“First moral of the story: in Arizona, initial results will likely be much bluer than eventual final results,” said Richer. “Second moral: if you want your ballot to be part of results released at 8:00 pm on Election Night, return it before the weekend before Election Day.”

🧵A blue night.

Let's start setting expectations now.

If voting patterns mirror Nov. 2020 and Aug. 2022, the initial results released in Maricopa County on Nov. 8 will be much bluer than the final results.

This is because the order in which ballots are tabulated.

Cont.— Stephen Richer—Maricopa Cnty Recorder (prsnl acct) (@stephen_richer) September 5, 2022

Less than two weeks after last month’s primary election, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors released their canvas of the election results. Over 866,000 voters (35 percent of the 2.47 million registered voters) cast ballots in the primary election, over 87 percent of which were early voters.

According to the canvas, Republicans had a higher turnout than Democrats in Maricopa County: over 59 percent to just over 47 percent, respectively. 

REVIEW PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS HERE

While Richer predicted the county’s potential initial outcomes for the midterms, the primary’s voter turnout and the county’s voter registration numbers hint at the potential final outcomes.

According to the county’s latest voter registration statistics in July, most voters identified as Republican. Over 854,000 voters were Republican (34.5 percent), while over 851,000 voters were “other” (34.4 percent) and over 748,000 were Democrats (30.2 percent).

For months, party switches have trended in the following order from least to greatest: other, Republican, Democrat, than Libertarian. In July, over 5,500 voters switched to “other,” over 4,500 switched to “Republican,” over 3,500 switched to Democrat, and over 400 switched to Libertarian. 

July 2022 Voter Registration numbers pic.twitter.com/2Z4r4Gj5Fn— Maricopa County Recorder's Office (@RecordersOffice) August 9, 2022

Maricopa County’s pattern of voter registrations aligns with the state’s. According to the secretary of state’s latest voter registration statistics, there are over 1.4 million Republicans (34.5 percent), over 1.4 million “other” voters (33.7 percent), and nearly 1.3 million Democrats (30.9 percent). Less than one percent, or 32,600 voters, were Libertarian.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona
KEYWORDS: 2022midterms; bloggers; fakenews; herewegoagain; stopthesteal
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To: SoConPubbie

Preparing people for the cheat?


21 posted on 09/07/2022 7:59:03 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (FBI out of Florida!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
why is that racist?

Because blacks are too stupid to get ID, or to find polling places /sarcasm

22 posted on 09/07/2022 9:32:35 PM PDT by zeugma (Stop deluding yourself that America is still a free country.)
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To: SoConPubbie

The Tallymen should not be allowed to get anywhere near the bananas until every banana has been turned in. After a certain time, no more banana ballots should be accepted. That would get them off their butts to get the ballots turned in.


23 posted on 09/07/2022 9:36:49 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I always thought a Merry Garland was a Christmas tree decoration.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Well, AZ got itself in trouble with mail in voting.
Everybody can opt to be included and get on permanent mail in list. It is actually not so easy to get off this list.
So by now about 80% of the vote is by mail!?
Mail goes out a long time before election.
They start counting the vote as soon as it comes in.
The result is kept secret until the pools close.
Then they declare it.
So the first result declared is the partial count of early, early votes, the ones they managed to count before the election day.
Then the in-person vote is added later on election night.
Pretty late!
Then they resume counting the mail in and drop in vote which came in late. That takes them another week or two. Then they process the provisional votes.
All it takes soo long, AZ is one of the last to finish counting!
Democrats, lefties and dead people vote early and often by the mail.
Republicans prefer the in-person vote or dropping the vote in pooling places on the election day.

As such, the first results tend to favorite Dems. Then the election day results come in late in night and swing the count Republican.
And then, as they count the late mail in, it keeps swinging Republican.
The provisional vote at the end adds little, but that seems to be neutral or slightly democratic.

It is total mess, they should scrap it and impose in person election day vote only.
But it is the law,
AZ got there by some propositions passed and by many tweaks later, each made it worse.


24 posted on 09/07/2022 9:57:23 PM PDT by AZJeep
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To: tennmountainman

Yes, until the darn Smartmatic machines plus their owner are sent back South America.


25 posted on 09/07/2022 10:37:46 PM PDT by Lumper20
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To: GreatRoad

They do.
Everything is checked by bipartisan couple.
The counting is fair. Long, but fair. Actually, it is so long, because they try to check everything.
The problems are the swollen registration list (Richer is trying to purge it somewhat, but not enough!) and the mail ins.
Anybody can forge signature on mail in envelope.


26 posted on 09/07/2022 11:14:30 PM PDT by AZJeep
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To: AZJeep

BTW,

Some fix to the mess up system is on the ballot this time

Vote YES for Props 128 and 129!

They should help with the mail in vote validation!


27 posted on 09/08/2022 12:34:19 AM PDT by AZJeep
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To: GreatRoad

“Why dont Rs have any vote counters?“

It doesn’t seem to matter if they do. The democrats just kick them out or block them from seeing before the counting is done and they just …comply.


28 posted on 09/08/2022 3:02:21 AM PDT by TalBlack (We have a Christian duty and a patriotic duty. God help us.)
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To: SoConPubbie

Well, the leftist democrats have decided to cheat from the very start of ballot counting.


29 posted on 09/08/2022 3:31:57 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks, and have the will to use them.)
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To: FreeReign

Yeah, Kari Lake was down 20% at the beginning and up 10% at the end.


30 posted on 09/08/2022 4:34:13 AM PDT by struggle
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It’s not it’s for getting more time to cheat.
Voting is a right paid for in blood,if your so freaking lazy to stand in line on ELECTION DAY,then go to Hell and stay home your not worth spit.


31 posted on 09/08/2022 6:21:39 AM PDT by ballplayer
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