Italy is already buckling.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-salvini-says-west-should-rethink-sanctions-for-russia/
Multiple governments have already fallen, in Italy and the UK, both have new PMs.
Germany may have 85% storage of gas but it’s at prices that have nearly quadrupled, which will have enormous impact on the economy well into next year.
It’s not just gas and oil that comes from Russia, they are a huge exporter of wheat and fertilizer which will have long term effects on the prices paid at the grocery store.
Finally, Russia can sell all the gas it wants to other countries that have not sanctioned them, taking Russian gas/oil off the market will have a long-term detrimental effect on Western economies for the foreseeable future until other countries gear up to produce more fossil fuels which is not guaranteed at this point.
“Multiple governments have already fallen, in Italy and the UK, both have new PMs.”
And yet they maintain the same policy of supporting the Ukraine. Public opinion and NATO obligations have endured Russia’s energy bullying, and now Russia has max’ed out what it can do on gas, to most of Europe. Didn’t work.
“Russia can sell all the gas it wants to other countries that have not sanctioned them”
No. the pipeline gas to Europe can’t physically be moved to other customers (oil largely can be, because most left on tanker ships, which can physically offload somewhere else). Pipelines and LNG terminals might be built in five or ten years, but finance and technical partners were withdrawn with the sanctions.
Russia is just burning off the gas that they used to sell to Europe. The volume of gas exports did not decline much until June. Since then, it has mostly been shut off. The full financial impact of that is just now working its way through the system, where most payments are monthly, with a grace period for settlement.
A few months of missed payments will play Hell with the Russian economy and Government finances. Russia has been more dependent on oil and gas revenues (half of GDP) than Saudi Arabia (1/3 of GDP).
They will likely print lots more new rubles (they have already been on a huge money printing spree), to pay the bills that gas revenues used to, but that just delays effects a few months, and moves around the impacts (rapid inflation next year). The real economy of actual activity (production, wages, etc.) is going to take a hit, as all the supporting industries for the former gas business suffer (supply chain and supporting industries, like restaurants in the gas towns).
Europe has planned out, costed out, and financed alternative sourcing of energy to replace Russian supplies. This Winter is the crunch, next Winter is still pricey, and then it is done.
Russia is screwed, and Putin did that to them.