Posted on 09/06/2022 11:27:00 AM PDT by BeauBo
The problem is, if Europe can’t get Russian gas, they will buy gas elsewhere. Once they do that, they’ll have no reason to ever buy Russian gas again.
” European customers are not going to return to the same level of dependency on Russian supplies “
Yeah, pretty stupid to become dependent on someone who you plan to start chest bumping and developing a hostile nation on their border.
The problem wasn’t dependency on Russia. The problem was EU/NATO hostility towards their vendor. Go to the main grocery store in a small town, insult the manager every chance you get, kick his dog, send people around to intimidate him. See how long you get to shop at his store.
You missed my whole point about how the Russian infrastructure has been built to service the European market.
Russia can sell to whoever they want, that’s not disputable.
What is a problem for them is how to sell even half as much to the rest of the world as they did to Europe.
This is a serious problem for them—they need lots of money now, not years from now after building new pipelines to elsewhere.
“Russia can sell all the gas it wants to other countries that have not sanctioned them”
Hope is not a plan of action.
The actual big projects that they had planned to expand their capacity to other markets, the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and the Arctic 2 LNG terminal; were not on track to go operational until 2030.
Both of those projects had their finances and partners pull out since the war.
It took decades to build the gas pipeline network to Europe. Replacement for gas customers is a long way away.
As is replacement gas for customers. A suicide pact. Not Europe's first.
Less of it at a much higher price.
Russia is benefiting from the sanction war and Europe is headed for deep recession, if not a depression.
The proxy and sanction war have bene a disaster. But, given that the Biden regime is the one behind, why would any sane person expect it to be anything but a disaster?
You're insane. You're as deluded as Rob Reiner ranting about Trump being guilty of Russian collusion and being impeached and going to person.
When Reiner went on that rant, he mentioned that either he or conservatives were living in alternate universe. He was right for the wrong reason. He was living in the alternate universe and so you on this issue.
Russia is going be FAR stronger after this war. Europe will be devastated and we will be greatly damaged because the dollar and petrodollar are losing their place as the world's currency.
You are literally following the Biden regime off a cliff.
The Russians are still collecting more revenue than before the war began. There will be never, ever be a shortage of nations willing to buy oil.
Energy prices are up 80% in Britain. Factories are shutting down in Germany. Europe will be devastated this winter. And, energy prices will explode again after the election here.
The proxy and sanction war are and will continue to be a disaster. You're delusional if you think otherwise. As it stands, the Biden regime and Democrats are set to take the fall politically for it. I'll be damned if you and your ilk drag the conservative movement into support this madness and drag it down. BECOME A DEMOCRAT. Trump and the American First movement are going to end the madness.
“Replacement for gas customers is a long way away.”
“As is replacement gas for customers.”
There is a huge difference.
More than half of Russia’s former volume of gas sent to Europe has already been replaced. From over 40% of Europe’s use to under 20%.
When the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas and the Willhelmshaven LNGterminal in Germany start up later this year, they will handle another 8% of Germany’s use - contracts signed, checks cleared. That that LNG terminal at Willhelmshaven is one of eight new ones funded in Germany since the start of the war in February (5 by the Government, plus 3 privately owned). Three of those new German terminals will start operations this year.
Other of these huge LNG terminal ships, called Floating Storage and Regassification Units (FSRUs) are contracted for Greece, Italy, France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Finland and Latvia.
All those that will be available for the next few years are already contracted to Europe. Not one is left to expand export capacity from Russia, and the wait for new ones is years long.
Bottom Line: With some conservation measures and high prices, Europe has already replaced enough Russian gas to get through this Winter. Russia will not be able to send gas from their fields that used to serve Europe to other customers for many years, if ever (once capped, those wells hard and expensive to restart).
“ The Russians are still collecting more revenue than before the war began.”
Clearly, having shut off the pipelines just since June, Current (and future) gas revenues have just cratered. Check the oil spot price. It is now back below where it was on 23 February. When it returns to the more long term pre-COVID norm of $60/barrel or less, Russia is screwed by its new higher transportation and transaction costs, even before December 5ths secondary sanctions kick in.
There will be never, ever be a shortage of nations willing to buy oil.”
Hello, there is every time there is a recession. The oil market is characterized by such boom and bust cycles of supply, demand and price.
The next recession (which seems to be starting already) everyone can agree to let Russia absorb all the reductions. Arguably, it was just such an oil market swing that collapsed the Soviet Union.
Everybody knows that Russia is extraordinarily dependent on oil and gas (1/2 of last year’s GDP) - even more dependent than Saudi Arabia (1/3). The gas flow that took decades to build, has been shut off between June and now.
Oil is the last support, and the West is targeting that for collapse, in several ways at once. An oil price downswing is all it will take to kick the last leg out from under Russia, and leave it swinging from its neck.
The Western Central Banks have all gone on a race, raising interest rates and tightening money supplies, in a way we have not seen in decades - very powerful tools to destroy oil demand and crush prices. There are price caps and insurance bans and secondary sanctions and other policies to reduce Russian oil revenues, but the normal cyclical grim reaper of an oil price drop is what the West knows will bankrupt Russia - and all have agreed to pay the price, because of the atrocious nature of Russia’s aggression.
Russia is doomed, and Putin brought it on them.
In recession, this one CAUSED by the sanction war, the one thing the masses MUST pay for is gas to heat their homes and to put in their cars. There isn't a choice.
And, just because Europe is in a recession doesn't mean the other nations buying Russian oil are, including India and China.
The Russia is getting better. Russia is self-sufficient and has multiple trade partners outside of the west, including India and China, the nations with the largest populations in the world.
This sanction was a Biden idea and moronic one. If you want to join in its humiliation, feel free to become a Democrat. America First conservatives want nothing to do with your obsession with Russia and the negative consequences associated with a proxy and sanction war with it.
You're a great example of how Russian Derangement Syndrome warps the mind. Either that or you're profiting from the war somehow and want to keep it going. Either way, most here don't share your sickness.
India and China are heavily dependent on trade with the West. Russia doesn’t have the GDP to be more than a minor replacement. Further, while India is behaving relatively sensibly, China seems to be committed to a downward spiral into ever-increasing authoritarianism. That’s NOT a recipe for economic success.
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