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To: Kazan

“ The Russians are still collecting more revenue than before the war began.”

Clearly, having shut off the pipelines just since June, Current (and future) gas revenues have just cratered. Check the oil spot price. It is now back below where it was on 23 February. When it returns to the more long term pre-COVID norm of $60/barrel or less, Russia is screwed by its new higher transportation and transaction costs, even before December 5ths secondary sanctions kick in.

There will be never, ever be a shortage of nations willing to buy oil.”

Hello, there is every time there is a recession. The oil market is characterized by such boom and bust cycles of supply, demand and price.

The next recession (which seems to be starting already) everyone can agree to let Russia absorb all the reductions. Arguably, it was just such an oil market swing that collapsed the Soviet Union.

Everybody knows that Russia is extraordinarily dependent on oil and gas (1/2 of last year’s GDP) - even more dependent than Saudi Arabia (1/3). The gas flow that took decades to build, has been shut off between June and now.

Oil is the last support, and the West is targeting that for collapse, in several ways at once. An oil price downswing is all it will take to kick the last leg out from under Russia, and leave it swinging from its neck.

The Western Central Banks have all gone on a race, raising interest rates and tightening money supplies, in a way we have not seen in decades - very powerful tools to destroy oil demand and crush prices. There are price caps and insurance bans and secondary sanctions and other policies to reduce Russian oil revenues, but the normal cyclical grim reaper of an oil price drop is what the West knows will bankrupt Russia - and all have agreed to pay the price, because of the atrocious nature of Russia’s aggression.

Russia is doomed, and Putin brought it on them.


91 posted on 09/06/2022 7:58:54 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
Hello, there is every time there is a recession. The oil market is characterized by such boom and bust cycles of supply, demand and price.

In recession, this one CAUSED by the sanction war, the one thing the masses MUST pay for is gas to heat their homes and to put in their cars. There isn't a choice.

And, just because Europe is in a recession doesn't mean the other nations buying Russian oil are, including India and China.

92 posted on 09/06/2022 9:14:26 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: BeauBo
Oil is the last support, and the West is targeting that for collapse

The Russia is getting better. Russia is self-sufficient and has multiple trade partners outside of the west, including India and China, the nations with the largest populations in the world.

This sanction was a Biden idea and moronic one. If you want to join in its humiliation, feel free to become a Democrat. America First conservatives want nothing to do with your obsession with Russia and the negative consequences associated with a proxy and sanction war with it.

You're a great example of how Russian Derangement Syndrome warps the mind. Either that or you're profiting from the war somehow and want to keep it going. Either way, most here don't share your sickness.

93 posted on 09/06/2022 9:19:03 PM PDT by Kazan
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