Pre-Labor Day Analysis: Are the GOP's Prospects in the Midterms Brightening or Dimming?

All of a sudden, it's September, and the upcoming elections are nearly two months out. To some extent, the question posed in the headline is a 'pick your poll' proposition, as competing narratives take form. One storyline posits that the 2022 elections are still shaping up as a shellacking for the ruling party. The president's numbers are very bad, Americans are heavily dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and both historical trends and current generic ballot data point to significant Republican gains in the fall. The other line of thought suggests that there's been a 'vibe shift' over the summer, with Democrats' standing substantially improved, leaving them in a position to limit House losses and likely retain control of the Senate. There is at least some evidence backing each theory of the case.

The 'Democrats gaining' side is bolstered by the generic ballot being almost exactly tied, after Republicans have led on the measure for most of the calendar year. The president's average job approval rating, while still quite weak, has ticked up into the low 40's, whereas he was languishing in the upper 30's throughout much of the summer. Republicans have nominated a number of first-time candidates with serious vulnerabilities in significant statewide races, some of whom have been seriously under-performing in public polling thus far. Democrats, by contrast, have over-performed in a string of special House elections, reflecting a more energized base in the wake of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. Also, gas prices have fallen (whether they maintain that trajectory in the next few months is an open question), making the the party in power's position a bit less nightmarish from a political perspective.

And one Donald J. Trump has once again been at the center of much of the national political discourse for weeks, further reigniting Democratic enthusiasm, while perhaps peeling rightward-drifting independents back away from the opposition party -- or at least giving them second thoughts. A fresh Wall Street Journal survey shows the party in power edging out to a slim lead on the 2022 ballot, with Biden's fortunes improving. And even amid the mess that has been the Biden administration, the more we're talking about Trump, the more the overall national dynamic evolves from essentially a pure referendum on Biden and the Democrats' stewardship of the country to something closer to a choice. And Trump embodies the other choice in the minds of more than a few swing voters. Trump is again at the forefront -- and Biden is benefiting, by comparison:

On the other hand, a number of worthwhile data points indicate that Biden remains a deeply unpopular president, the right track/wrong track data is historically dismal, Republicans in some important Senate races appear to be gaining some steam (see polls out of Georgia, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania). A number of national polls show Democrats pushing into the lead on the generic ballot, but the closely-watched Trafalgar poll -- which has picked up on some trends that many pollsters have missed in recent cycles -- tracks the GOP advantage widening a bit:

There's also the elephant in the room of notable polling misses over recent cycles, with Republicans often ultimately outperforming their polling standing at this stage of of the horserace (I'd also add that summer polling can be notoriously suspect). Consider this:

But haven't some of the aforementioned special elections in House districts (including Sarah Palin's loss in Alaska, a state in which the incumbent GOP Senator won by 13 points in blue-tinted 2020) proven that maybe the polls may actually be underestimating Democrats this time around? That's a stretch. Read this about Alaska, and also understand that election gurus have been buzzing about this effect over the last few weeks:

I've also been arguing lately that Democrats have been really overselling their special election performances, for various reasons. Might Biden's outrageous and unlawful student loan giveaway scheme hurt his party? After all, a large majority of Americans hold no college or grad school debt, and may not be thrilled by the prospect of having their hard-earned tax dollars flowing to disproportionately richer people to help pay down debts those people knowingly chose to incur. But polling seems to show that Biden's latest inflationary move is at least somewhat popular, with a few public opinion cross-currents. People tend to love 'free' money, even if it's not destined for them...this time. Then again, if inflation gets worse and higher education costs continue to rise (the latter of which is inevitable), the moderately good mood could sour. Quickly. But will those consequences materialize before November? Democrats are counting on that answer being 'no.' Relatedly, I'll be curious to see if and how this plays out:

Over the last few days, all of our polling shifted right — by a lot.

Biden’s student loan forgiveness move is going to be devastating for the Left.— Nick Stehle (@nstehle) September 1, 2022

Finally, since we've discussed the tightening of the 'generic ballot' as potential evidence of meaningful Democratic momentum, this flashback might be useful to ponder:

Additional data points worth considering: One month out from the 2021 off-year elections, Democrats led on the avg generic ballot by nearly 4 points. They still led on election day. Then VA & NJ both swung ~11 net points toward the GOP vs. Biden's 2020 margins.

https://t.co/rHpCozytAR pic.twitter.com/ximXLAreTi— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 1, 2022

My pre-Labor Day bottom line hasn't changed: The 'fundamentals' of the election are bad for Democrats. The picture has grown less grim, but under these circumstances, Republicans should easily win back the House and have a real shot at taking the Senate, too. A great night for the GOP would look like 2010 or 2014. A less than great night would more closely resemble 2018 in reverse. If a less 'wave-like' outcome materializes, there will be lots of time for recriminations on the Right (the severity of which depend on how far short of baseline expectations those results might end up), but neither complacency nor 'precriminations' are in order right now. There's an important election looming, and Republicans stand a good chance of making real gains. Very soon, all the speculation will end, and the actual voting will begin.

Gaslighting chart porn.

They are scared if they're already doing this in early September.

Biden's approval numbers are at all time lows, and "Direction of the Country" or "Handling of the Economy" are also at all time lows.

Yet the people are going to vote for more of the same come November?

Even when I was a young liberal, that speech of Biden’s, the scapegoating, hostility, blind hypocrisy and Nazi backdrop would have scared me.

I would have not voted, or voted third party. I believe there are enough sane Democrats out there, just as when as a first time voter, I could not vote for Carter, because I thought he would crack up in office. Not that I voted for Reagan either.

That Nazi backdrop should scare Jewish voters and Jewish money...again, it will scare some but not all.

This is me reacting emotionally, skipping all the graphs, which I will go read now. Most voters react emotionally.

After last night, we Republicans hit the MOTHER LOAD!!!!Thank you vegetable in chief for the gift! The speech did one thing… it scare the hell out of the American people who will not walk but run to the nearest voting booth in November! With or without our spineless POS bastard minority leaders leading the charge, we the people will take matters into our own hands and vote those bastards out in November!

back when I used to believe in/care about the numbers, it was definitely a pattern that if the D’s were at parity with, or behind the R’s in “generic ballot”....then the D’s got crushed.

If it is true that they are behind by like 6....if that is actually the case, and fraud mechanisms are not in place to steal...then....the D’s will get wiped out.

Alas, I don’t believe that is the case so I suppose what I jsut wrote is a bit of nostalgia and hopium.

The Democrats stole (many) a presidential election in their long and sorted history.

Mid terms should be a walk in the park for them.

That’s why the border was opened up.

Get the illegals in, give them the freebies and tell them who to vote for. It’s going to take a miracle for the GOP to take back the House and Senate.

And I’m praying for a miracle.

Remember the 115th Congress from 2017 to 2019.

Paul Ryan was Speaker and Mitch McConnell was the Senate Majority Leader.

These two ‘effed over and backstabbed President Trump and We the People too many times to count.

Should the pubbies take Congress, avoid disappointment; I expect nothing more than pompous grandstanding from these clowns.

But hey, we should just keep on voting in congressional elections and pretend it matters.

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