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What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 09/02/2022 | Nathaniel Rakitch

Posted on 09/01/2022 8:20:08 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

For the second time in as many weeks, Democrats have won a competitive special election. And by the numbers, this win was even more impressive than last week’s victory in New York’s 19th District.

On Wednesday, the Alaska Division of Elections announced that former state Rep. Mary Peltola had defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin in the special election for the state’s vacant U.S. House seat, becoming the first Alaska Native ever elected to Congress and the first Democrat to win a statewide election since 2008.

[SNIP]

Democrats have clearly overperformed in special elections since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson in June, but the reasons for Peltola’s win may have been more local than national.

Namely, Palin was a very flawed candidate. After her 2008 vice-presidential campaign flopped, Palin resigned the governorship (reportedly amid ethics investigations), bought a house in Arizona and went on to appear on reality TV — giving Alaskans the sense that she had abandoned them. According to a July poll from Alaska Survey Research, 61 percent of Alaska registered voters had a negative opinion of her. It’s hard to win with those kinds of numbers.

It seems likely then, that had a different Republican advanced to the final round, Peltola would have lost. According to that same poll — which almost exactly nailed the final margin between Peltola and Palin — Begich would have defeated Peltola 55 percent to 45 percent if he had made it to the final round instead of her. That would still have been bluer than Alaska’s R+15 partisan lean, but it mostly demonstrates how much of Republicans’ underperformance here may have been due to simple candidate quality (or lack thereof).

What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes.

THIS IS AN EXCERPT. CLICK ON THE ABOVE ARTICLE LINK FOR THE REST



TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: alaska; congress; democrats; nathanielrakitch; november
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To: Gene Eric

MITCH PULLED GOP ADD MONEY FOR HAWAII AND ALASKA.


41 posted on 09/02/2022 7:13:38 AM PDT by GailA (Constitution vs evil Treasonous political Apparatchiks, Constitutional Conservative.)
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To: SeekAndFind

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/12/02/trump-allies-urge-georgia-republicans-sit-out-senate-runoffs/3800126001/

Hopefully we won’t have idiots tell conservative voters to not vote like in January 2021.


42 posted on 09/02/2022 7:48:22 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: Ozymandias Ghost

Ranked voting is a scam designed to let candidates win with less support than if they ran in a primary. No state should allow it.


43 posted on 09/02/2022 7:58:54 AM PDT by Warriorposter
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To: ncalburt

NY District was Biden +1-2, which is more Republican than the national average. If we lose districts like that, we lose the House.

5/5 last special elections were weak performances by Republicans. what is cherry picking?

You get your facts straight. You wouldn’t recognize a fact if it hit you in the face.


44 posted on 09/02/2022 8:28:31 AM PDT by nbenyo
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To: bigfootbob

Check


45 posted on 09/02/2022 8:46:20 AM PDT by Vaduz ( )
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To: nbenyo
Strong Democrat performance in Nebraska, Minnesota, upstate NY, and now Alaska.

In the five special elections since Dobbs, the Democrats either won or greatly outperformed expectations.

And then there was the abortion debacle in Kansas.

People here are whistling past the graveyard.

Yes, the GOP can still win but it's hardly the foregone conclusion that it was a few months ago. They're going to have to really fight and raise money.

46 posted on 09/02/2022 8:50:45 AM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: Clemenza
Florida will be an outlier in November.

And Georgia, only because Brian Kemp's massive landslide victory over Stacy Abrams will sweep all the other (R) candidates across the finish line.

Walker might be the only Trump senate pick that gets elected and, ironically, it'll be Kemp that wins it for him.

47 posted on 09/02/2022 8:54:58 AM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: Drew68

You are so full of it. Oz wins big. So does Masters. So do you think RINOs would do better? Go away gnat.


48 posted on 09/02/2022 8:57:05 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Beagle8U
Nope, the 3rd place loser R will also be on the Nov ballot and will split the R votes so the demonrat wins.

Yep. Alaska will send a Democrat to congress for the first time since 1972

"So Begich should drop out and let all of his supporters move to Palin, right?"

No. Many of these voters picked Peltola as their second choice over Palin, or picked nobody at all. They're not going to become Palin voters.

"So second-place winner Sarah Palin should drop out?"

Yes, if the GOP wants a shot to win the seat back.

49 posted on 09/02/2022 9:02:50 AM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: central_va
You are so full of it. Oz wins big. So does Masters.

Oz might win. I'll give you that. There seems to be some momentum going his way. Masters is in trouble.

So do you think RINOs would do better?

I prefer candidates that win elections. And if Dr. Oz manages to pull it off, you can expect that he'll become Mitch McConnell's new best friend and hold positions only sightly less liberal than John Fetterman.

50 posted on 09/02/2022 9:06:40 AM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: Drew68
I prefer candidates that win elections.

Spoken like a political whore. Political slutiness is why we are in trouble. It's you RINOs that won't back MAGA people is the problem.

51 posted on 09/02/2022 12:06:12 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dems will wih the Nov. election handily since Soros manufactured voting machines will be used.


52 posted on 09/11/2022 10:40:35 AM PDT by chopperk
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