What is the breakdown for Palin voters who placed her first? How many voted for Begich second? No second choice? Or for the Dem?
Palin’s votes don’t get redistributed, because she was in Second. However, there was one poll that absolutely nailed the final result.
It was taken back in July.
“Nicholas Begich beats Mary Peltola 57-43 in an RCV final pairing on August 16th, with Sarah Palin eliminated first.
The 3-way result is:
Peltola 40
Begich 31
Palin 29
In a “hypothetical” Palin-Peltola final two, Peltola wins 50.7-49.3. Palin’s negative rating? Exactly 60%!”
Given how accurate the poll was, it shows that Begich would have won in a walk if he had managed to get second place. The other way around, Palin lost this.
Those who voted second for Begich did not get to have their votes counted. In total, an overwhelming number may have voted for Begich as first or second, but Palin’s second choice voters did not get to have their votes tabulated.
You can bet that >95% of the voters who picked Palin #1, picked Begich #2.
The problem for Sarah Palin is that there's a greater number of voters who picked Begich #1 and Peltola #2 rather than Begich #1 and Palin #2.
This is what dooms Sarah Palin in November.