Palin’s votes don’t get redistributed, because she was in Second. However, there was one poll that absolutely nailed the final result.
It was taken back in July.
“Nicholas Begich beats Mary Peltola 57-43 in an RCV final pairing on August 16th, with Sarah Palin eliminated first.
The 3-way result is:
Peltola 40
Begich 31
Palin 29
In a “hypothetical” Palin-Peltola final two, Peltola wins 50.7-49.3. Palin’s negative rating? Exactly 60%!”
Given how accurate the poll was, it shows that Begich would have won in a walk if he had managed to get second place. The other way around, Palin lost this.
Too many variables to come to that assumption. Let’s see what a higher turnout does in November.
No way does Petola win in a head to head match with Palin.