Look again, what I said is EXACTLY right.
11222 of Begich voters didn’t rank anyone second. So those votes were exhausted. These voters didn’t want a Democrat, but they also didn’t want Palin, so they didn’t rank anyone second. Those voters alone would have beat Pelota.
15445 of Begich’s voters hated Palin so bad that they actually put Pelota ahead of her.
27042 of Begich’s voters put Palin second.
Palin’s negatives cost us this race.
If Begich were in second, a much smaller portion of Palin’s voters would have ranked Pelota Second.
That was all the difference.
What is the breakdown for Palin voters who placed her first? How many voted for Begich second? No second choice? Or for the Dem?
To be honest, I am infuriated at the stupidity of these voters.
But I also think Sarah Palin has been so demonized by the Democrats that many of those 11,000 have fallen for it.
In any election you can blame the candidate. Or you can look at the real motivations of the voters, and the tactics of the campaigns.
Begich's voters don't seem to be conservatives, or even solid Republicans. So 11,222 of them bullet voted, which suggests they didn't want a Republican win, they only wanted a Begich win. The same with the 15,445 who voted for a Democrat as their second choice.
A lot of this looks like good tactics by Democrats and their allies to win in an RCV election.
Step 1: Put enough votes on one of the opponents to split the first round and prevent the top candidate on the other side from getting a majority in round 1.
Step 2: Get second choices so that your candidate wins in round 2.
Thank you for your objective analysis!
Sometimes you have to look at a result honestly and this is one of those times.