Posted on 08/29/2022 12:30:01 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Thats YUGE!!! 2% for GOP on generic ballot may be beyond the margin of fraud is most areas because that translates to about 6% at the polls.
Anyone know, does any organization do polling or research by individual congressional district, as opposed to these generic polls that are done?
Granted that there are many districts which we know will go for Democrats, and some are virtually certain to go for the GOP nominee. Is it just too complex to do the deep dive, because there are 435 individual House races to track, if anyone tried to do this sort of prediction by individual House races???
You mean 7 :)
"Stephanopoulos and his other guests -- ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot don’t necessarily predict the outcome of the 2014 elections."And you (know) on that point, if you look at where those numbers were before the Republican wave in 2010, Democrats had an advantage on the generic ballot in Congress," Karl said. "Even in 1994 with the Gingrich revolution. I mean you had, Democrats had that advantage. So it wasn't quite as big as it is now, but it wasn't much different."
We turned to political analyst Larry Sabato for an explanation of the relevance of generic ballots.
"The generic ballot is one important indicator of the likely outcome of U.S. House elections, though by itself it cannot predict which party will win control," Sabato said in an email. "It is also true that Democrats tend to have an edge on this measure."
Karl used polling from before the 1994 and 2010 elections to emphasize that people shouldn’t read too much into the fact that Democrats currently hold a 48-40 lead among voters who are asked generically if they’d vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress.
Karl is accurately citing ABC polling leading up to the 1994 and 2010 elections. Other polling we found does not contradict Karl’s statement."
NOW SHUT IT.
Rasmussen has GOP +5.
I know.. I was being sarcastic.
"There has been a surge of optimism among Democrats lately when it comes to November’s midterm elections. The short version of the thinking is: Maybe we’re not going to get clobbered after all! But much of their hope is still likely in vain. For one reason: President Joe Biden.It’s true that so-called generic ballot polling has moved a few points in the Democrats’ direction. The generic ballot question is: If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate for your representative in Congress? In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, the Republican Party has led in the generic ballot question since late last year. At one point, in February, the GOP lead was 4 points. For much of the summer, it’s been 2 points. But recently, Democrats have been catching up, and at the moment the two parties are essentially tied in the RCP average, with Republicans at 44.2% and Democrats at 44%.
The problem is, the House still looks bad for Democrats. And perhaps the biggest reason is this: A president’s job approval rating is a critical indicator, perhaps the best single indicator, of how well his party will do in midterm elections for the House. And Biden’s job approval rating is still low and unlikely to rise out of the danger zone in the next 2 1/2 months.
History is the evidence. There have been a dozen midterm elections since 1974. The president’s party gained seats in just two of them. One was 2002, when the nation was on war footing under President George W. Bush and voters were not in the mood to challenge presidential leadership. Bush’s job approval at election time was 63%. Even with that, his party picked up only six seats. But of course the real news was that the GOP did not lose seats.
The bottom line is that a high job approval rating can protect a president against blowout midterm losses. On the other hand, when a president’s rating goes down, bad things happen for his party. Look at a few examples, all with numbers from the Gallup poll:
In 2010, Barack Obama’s job approval rating was 45%, and his party lost 63 seats in the House. In 1994, Clinton’s rating was 46%, and his party lost 53 House seats. In 2018, Trump’s rating was 41%, and his party lost 40 seats in the House. In 1982, Reagan’s rating was 42%, and his party lost 26 seats. In 2006, George W. Bush’s rating was 38%, and his party lost 30 seats.
Biden’s job approval rating at the moment is 41.2% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The numbers are very similar with a different mix of polls at FiveThirtyEight, where Biden’s approval rating is 40.7%.
Biden’s approval rating at day 581 of his presidency is lower than any other president since World War II, with the exceptions of Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman. Even Trump, whose ratings were low his entire presidency, had a higher approval at this point in his term than Biden does now.
History says a president with a job approval rating of 41% will not see midterm gains. He just won’t."
How heavy did the oversample Dems?
Oil is up 4 pts today. Brent is back at 105!
They don’t call them See-BS for nothing.
Conservatives must be up by at least 12 points.
Most times the rats lead by 4~6 points
This is huge and the gop will win 30 plus seats
yep, add 2-3 minimum for likely voter adjustment .
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