This is an effect of Russia’s extreme dependence on oil and natural gas (1/2 of GDP, more than even Saudi Arabia). Temporary high prices there, mask declines in other industries, when you look at the top line total.
Most other industries in Russia are experiencing Depressionary levels of contraction - manufacturing, airlines, advertising, tourism, and finance jump out as a few examples, that have fallen by more than half in a few months.
The European transition off of Russian oil and gas took a few months to plan and get approved and funded in the many different countries, but with few exceptions (Hungary), that is now done, and progressing at Tesla speed. Actual EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas were not established until June, but that announced phaseout is well ahead of schedule.
Russian gas exports have already imploded pretty dramatically. That excess product can’t be physically moved to other buyers, and is now just being burnt off. Over half of their former exports are gone already, most of that over the last 2-3 months.
Most (not all) of the already significant (2 million barrels per day (BPD)) reduction in European oil imports from Russia so far, have found other buyers. Despite having to sharply discount the selling price, and incurring higher expenses, the wartime surge in price has maintained total revenue, and helped to keep the economy and Government finances’ head above water, along with a money printing spree.
But oil prices are already back down a quarter from the temporary peak, and two major threats loom for Russian oil exports - December 5th sanctions, and global demand reductions from recession.
December 5th is the EU deadline to end oil tanker shipments from Russia (with a few exceptions into February). That was about. 90% of Russia’s former oil exports to Europe (10% pipeline) - about another 2 million BPD. December 5th is also planned as the date for actual secondary sanctions on other buyers of Russian oil, like China and India - the so-called price cap. So far, there have been no financial disincentives placed on other buyers, but they are coming.
Global recessions can reduce demand 10-15%, Almost double the total of Russia’s oil exports last year. Those demand drops also typically strongly create large price drops for oil. Other producers revenues get crushed when that happens, and they will be thrilled to soak up some of Russia’s former market share, to tide them over. Sanctions will drive Russia having to absorb the bulk of demand reduction.
The last remaining leg of Russia’s economy, the oil gusher, is set to rapidly contract into a squeaker. Prices may well rise again for a bit around the end of the year when that adjustment hits, but likely not for long, and possibly not at all, if the recession sets in first.
Russia can keep printing rubles like Argentina for another year, but then it would likely have to shift to Zimbabwe speed.
Putin did that.