I believe that Russia will push for the whole Ukrainean coast down to the mouth of the Danube: and also linking up with Transnitria.
The most likely border for the rest of Ukraine would - I guess - run broadly along the Dneiper river but with Kherson & Odessa incorporated into the Russian-aligned zone.
In the west: I’m not sure how far Poland will go with its irredentist claims on Lvov. But yes, I do expect that post-war Ukraine will be smaller.
If the neocons continue to pump weapons into NW Ukraine to maintain it as a permanant war ‘cash-cow’, then Russia may have to go further.
For the most part, agreed.
However, I do speculate that Russia will push further to compensate for the 300km HIMAR missiles to arrive in September. Lavrov has pretty much spelled out as much a week plus ago concerning those US extended range HIMAR missiles being sent to Ukraine.
I merely posted that map of Ukraine by Medvedev for the giggles.