Posted on 07/30/2022 6:48:18 AM PDT by Dr. Franklin
If you’re expecting massive tank battles fought across a wide front, prepare to be disappointed.
Ukrainian government and military leaders have acknowledged that a counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast has started, and evidence is mounting that the operation is gaining momentum. The dictionary defines counteroffensive as “an attack made in response to one from an enemy, typically on a large scale and for a prolonged period.”
For many, the word counteroffensive conjures up images from World War II and the Battle of the Bulge in the Ardennes or the Red Army’s response to Germany’s Operation Bagration near Minsk. Prepare to be disappointed for those expecting massive formations of troops and tanks rushing across the steppe supported by ferocious artillery barrages. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson will more closely resemble the United States World War II island hopping campaign in the Pacific than the plains of Eastern Europe or the deserts of Iraq during the first Gulf War.
Beyond Kherson city, most of the oblast west of the Dnipro River is sparsely populated. Small villages dot wheat fields across a flat landscape similar to rural Kansas or Nebraska in the United States. Settlements are spread out as much as 10 to 12 kilometers apart with almost no natural defenses or obstacles. Tree-lined dirt roads offer some cover, but the routes are obvious and easily observed. This area is tank country, and the terrain had Cold War strategic planners at the Pentagon and the Kremlin fretting during the last century. However, both belligerents have a problem.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have many tanks to spare in a broad advance across the region. Ukrainian forces are reportedly training tank brigades for a future initiative and continue to have limited resources...
(Excerpt) Read more at malcontentment.com ...
Ukraine ping!
This counter-offensive is the most talked about and least executed military maneuver in maybe all of mankind’s history.
This is the first war in the history of the world during which both sides had excellent satellite recon. There is no surprise. And massing troops just makes them a target.
Satellite recon and land mines are determining everything.
Logistics has always been the Achille’s heel of the Russian army. Long range artillery that has destroyed ammunition depots and bridges has made resupply of tired, hungry, demoralized Russian soldiers difficult. Helicopter resupply is inefficient, dangerous and will cost the Russians dearly in aircraft and casualties.
This is a war of attrition.
Interesting theory and worthwhile reading. One key difference is that Russia has access to a vast population compared to Ukraine. There are indications Russia is gearing up military production and sees this as a long term struggle not only for Ukraine but other countries as well.
Ukraine depends on other countries providing weapons but how long will those countries continue to do so depleting their own weapon stocks and without payment? How long will Europeans be willing to suffer in the cold, with diminished food supply, and no hot water before the populace turns against the war? How long will the US?
Ukraine needs to make considerable progress in the next three months on the ground to keep support at current levels. Russia knows this as well.
“The counteroffensive in Kherson will look a lot like the Pacific Campaign of World War II”
OK, that’s funny and wrong.
I, too, LOL.
This is a proxy war (poorly planned & executed by all parties). It is only a matter of time before Russia has US military ‘advisers’ in captivity as bargaining chips, and then ‘escalation’ will top search terms.
Between what this administration is doing in Ukraine & Taiwan, people ought to ensure they have an updated SHTF plan.
Island-hopping required massing naval forces. With the technology available today, there isn’t a campaign that is comparable with two peer armies arrayed against each other.
It will be economic attrition that wins.
Russia is the grain, Ukraine is the stone. As long as the grain is ground the stone will be turned. Yes, they will have lots of support.
I’m not so sure Russia is even getting body bags back but that is a minor point.
As long as Russia commits public atrocities they will be opposed with as much vigor as the Ukrainians can muster.
The nation is in ruins by now. I wonder what this does to the mind? I can’t imagine.
body bags were imported to Russia and the usable supply is depleted.
“It is only a matter of time before Russia has US military ‘advisers’ in captivity as bargaining chips, and then ‘escalation’ will top search terms.”
Good post—glad that somebody gets it.
The US has made every single tactical and strategic error that Sun Tzu lists.
This will not end well for anyone.
‘One neat trick’ UKR is doing is to mount an offensive, take some territory then stop and dig in. The whole idea is to get the Russians to respond. The Russians come out of their fortifications and maneuver to confront the UKRs. That’s when the UKR artillery and HIMARS which have been brought in open up on them. Rope-a-dope.
Russian tactical dogma and rigid command structure ensures this will go on for months before they counter it.
The just brought up 70 2S7 Pions will have a word here too.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.