“LOL, Russia only exports half the gas it used to export...except it is getting ten times more for it.”
The gas being delivered to Europe is under pre-existing contracts, that set the price.
The volume is way down though. Nordstream is only running at 20%. That gas flow is doomed to being replaced by other suppliers, only the schedule might vary.
A tanker full of oil can be sold on the spot market, and Russia can still move those. Although total oil volume is down somewhat, and on a declining trend, price is still strong by historical norms, despite already being down about 20% from the peak of the war price spike.
Even with the additional discounts that Russia must offer on its oil because of the war, and the relatively higher cost to produce that it has, Russia can still make money on oil, at present.
The stories of record Russian revenues are now a bit dated, as prices have already passed peak, and volumes continue to steadily decline. That noose will continue to tighten, inevitably.
When Europe has fully replaced Russian tanker shipments of oil this December, the next phase of strangulation is already well planned.
December 5th is now the target to impose price caps on Russian oil. This is the first phase of imposing secondary sanctions on other countries that would buy Russian oil. It is designed to make Russia absorb the costs of the sanctions.
Other countries would be faced with higher penalties than they would save from the discounted Russian oil prices - unless they stick with the new very low buyers cartel price for Russian oil (in which case, they get even better prices). Its a win for the other customers, only Russia loses.
Russia will be faced with the choice of making very little on its oil, or nothing at all.
If, as seems likely, widespread recession occurs this year or next, lower prices will choke off the profits from any smuggling scheme.
Putin is a master strategist, who controls the whole world, and is ten feet tall.
Get out while you can.
You are talking like a Roman a year before fall.
My guess is that in months the USD is not going to be what it used to be and a great deal of weapons your government sent to Ukraine is going to return stateside with the cartels and organized crime.
Punishing Russia is not going to be a priority at this point.
Americans are likely to get hunted all around the third world, both military and civilians making the access to raw materials much harder.
Look at the Middle East to start with. Is there anyone pro-American left except Israel? Israel is actually between a rock and a hard place as well.
As for the Russian oil, check out its percentage in the total economy. Russians are going to do just fine exporting 20% of current volume. If you’d hear from their big oil CEOs they advocate cutting exports already. Are you going to do okay with $12-16 gas as a result is another question .