Ukraine could push Japan, S Korea to go nuclear

And the time for Japan to do that is yesterday, not tomorrow.

The only country reasonably and regionally threatened by a possible nuclear Japan, is China. Not Russia, not the US, not India, not Pakistan, not the UK and certainly not Israel.

While such actions may drive a nuclear arms race is Asia or SE Asia is likely, imo, only regionally is Japan able and willing to stretch its "imperial" ambitions, and other than calls for Japan First, I have not seen a resurgence or calls for a return to Empire.

And Russia and China have nukes. And India and Pakistan have nukes.

I think that the lines of power are more clearly drawn in the nuclear age when things happen in 30 mins or less, and we all know the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons.

Nations of the world look after their own security first, whether or not they are still suckling off the US teat (well, everyone but Russia, China, North Korea and France), and then to any "alliances" and "friendships" and "special relationships" a distant second.

A weak, feckless, illegitimate, traitor and coward masquerading as anything other than president of the local PedoClown club, drives every nation, that in the past relied upon US security guarantees, to rightly question the motives and ambitions of the US.

For Japan and the region, China is the threat. Not Russia and not Muh Ukraine.

Respectfully disagree. I am a US Navy veteran myself, spent three years at CNFJ in Yokosuka, and have lived in Japan for 35 years. I also have friends in the Japan Self Defense forces, a Japanese wife, daughter, and four grandchildren here.

The consensus I am seeing evolve says that while Japan certainly appreciates US support, they have come to the conclusion that they cannot always depend on it and that they must have a credible independent defense posture.

A quick look at the overview of the most recently released Japan Defense White Paper (https://www.ntv.co.jp/englishnews/articles/2021d4h133ib2t829bvd.html) makes it very clear to me that Japan is serious about upgrading its defenses and is preparing to meet the threat regardless of who is President of the USA.

The only country reasonably and regionally threatened by a possible nuclear Japan, is China. Not Russia, not the US, not India, not Pakistan, not the UK and certainly not Israel.

I notice you intentionally left out North Korea. Due to the "reasonably and regionally threatened" clause. Even though N. Korean sends missiles into the sea near Japan, they know that Japan wouldn't bother attacking them with nukes.

China is a different matter. China wants to rule all of Asia and the Pacific surrounding it. China's empire mentality is similar to Japans' a century ago - an Asian empire ruling all Asians. The only country capable of holding back the Chinese empire would be a nuclear Japan (perhaps in conjunction with a nuclear-enabled South Korea, an interesting potential development).

Thanks.

I added that clause because I made the assumption that in any nuclear or conventional exchange between a nuclear-Japan and China, that North Korea would also be on my/their target list.

WMDs, ballistic missiles, shaky-at-best "leadership", but so far, still under the heel of China (their little barking dog).

The top 12 most populous cities in Japan (according to Google): 27,437,000 [124,900,000 - 2022]

The top 12 most populous cities in China (according to Google): 172,964,750 [1,414,000,000 - 2022]

Any nuclear strike planner absolutely has to take the population figures into account in any calculus of winners/losers, in a nuclear exchange.

It is easier and more efficient to have a counterforce/countervalue exchange than simply a counterforce exchange. Once the nukes start flying, future generations will not care or even remember who started It or why, they will only count the dead or eat the dead.

The same goes for Japanese nuclear planning versus China/NKorea. Warning Time. Civil Defense and planning.

Urban versus Suburban. Technical versus Agrarian. Educated versus Simple. These factors, along with what kind of shelter, medicine, medical care, food, livestock, weather patterns, time of year, cohesive civilian-military-but-not-yet-Mad Max-type warlords trying to keep order or rebuild. These factors along with simple uncaring luck, will decide if, how quickly and in what form, civilization might return.

Nuking those 12 Chinese cities would account (at the outset) for approximately 12% of the total Chinese population, leaving 1,241,034,250 [at least 50%+ dead within a month].

Nuking those 12 Japanese cities would account (at the outset) for approximately 21% of the total Japanese population, leaving 97,463,000 [at least 50%+ dead within a month].

So 600+ million starving irradiated wounded angry Chinese/NKoreans versus 45+ million starving irradiated wounded angry Japanese, blown back to the Stone Age. Do the math for the US, Russia, Israel, India, Pakistan, the UK, France and the EU. No country or population on Earth will remain untouched. Radiation and germs and chemicals don't care where you live or what your political bent or dreams might have been.

The Living will envy the Dead.

This is, of course, an oversimplification of what an actual strategic worldwide nuclear exchange would entail. More than just Japan would either launch or be forced to use-them-or-lose-them, or have a Dead Hand in place (like Russia), and not counting other regional hotspots like India/Pakistan or Israel/Middle East.

WMDs also include biological, chemical and mutagenic attacks. Nuking large dams (High Aswan, Three Gorges, Hoover, Grand Coulee et al), targeting nuclear power-generating plants and stations (Chernobyl times infinity), targeting oil fields and liquid-storage facilities, EMP weapons, neutron bombs and cobalt dirty bombs, radiological weapons in the hands of terrorists, and the list goes on. More bang for your nuclear buck. And every nuclear or aspiring-to-nukes nation has these plans.

A weak and weakened USA is a clear power vacuum, with aspiring Power Blocs jockeying to get their ducks in a row.

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