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The only country reasonably and regionally threatened by a possible nuclear Japan, is China. Not Russia, not the US, not India, not Pakistan, not the UK and certainly not Israel.

I notice you intentionally left out North Korea. Due to the "reasonably and regionally threatened" clause. Even though N. Korean sends missiles into the sea near Japan, they know that Japan wouldn't bother attacking them with nukes.

China is a different matter. China wants to rule all of Asia and the Pacific surrounding it. China's empire mentality is similar to Japans' a century ago - an Asian empire ruling all Asians. The only country capable of holding back the Chinese empire would be a nuclear Japan (perhaps in conjunction with a nuclear-enabled South Korea, an interesting potential development).

Thanks.

I added that clause because I made the assumption that in any nuclear or conventional exchange between a nuclear-Japan and China, that North Korea would also be on my/their target list.

WMDs, ballistic missiles, shaky-at-best "leadership", but so far, still under the heel of China (their little barking dog).

The top 12 most populous cities in Japan (according to Google): 27,437,000 [124,900,000 - 2022]

The top 12 most populous cities in China (according to Google): 172,964,750 [1,414,000,000 - 2022]

Any nuclear strike planner absolutely has to take the population figures into account in any calculus of winners/losers, in a nuclear exchange.

It is easier and more efficient to have a counterforce/countervalue exchange than simply a counterforce exchange. Once the nukes start flying, future generations will not care or even remember who started It or why, they will only count the dead or eat the dead.

The same goes for Japanese nuclear planning versus China/NKorea. Warning Time. Civil Defense and planning.

Urban versus Suburban. Technical versus Agrarian. Educated versus Simple. These factors, along with what kind of shelter, medicine, medical care, food, livestock, weather patterns, time of year, cohesive civilian-military-but-not-yet-Mad Max-type warlords trying to keep order or rebuild. These factors along with simple uncaring luck, will decide if, how quickly and in what form, civilization might return.

Nuking those 12 Chinese cities would account (at the outset) for approximately 12% of the total Chinese population, leaving 1,241,034,250 [at least 50%+ dead within a month].

Nuking those 12 Japanese cities would account (at the outset) for approximately 21% of the total Japanese population, leaving 97,463,000 [at least 50%+ dead within a month].

So 600+ million starving irradiated wounded angry Chinese/NKoreans versus 45+ million starving irradiated wounded angry Japanese, blown back to the Stone Age. Do the math for the US, Russia, Israel, India, Pakistan, the UK, France and the EU. No country or population on Earth will remain untouched. Radiation and germs and chemicals don't care where you live or what your political bent or dreams might have been.

The Living will envy the Dead.

This is, of course, an oversimplification of what an actual strategic worldwide nuclear exchange would entail. More than just Japan would either launch or be forced to use-them-or-lose-them, or have a Dead Hand in place (like Russia), and not counting other regional hotspots like India/Pakistan or Israel/Middle East.

WMDs also include biological, chemical and mutagenic attacks. Nuking large dams (High Aswan, Three Gorges, Hoover, Grand Coulee et al), targeting nuclear power-generating plants and stations (Chernobyl times infinity), targeting oil fields and liquid-storage facilities, EMP weapons, neutron bombs and cobalt dirty bombs, radiological weapons in the hands of terrorists, and the list goes on. More bang for your nuclear buck. And every nuclear or aspiring-to-nukes nation has these plans.

A weak and weakened USA is a clear power vacuum, with aspiring Power Blocs jockeying to get their ducks in a row.