[Miguk]

It will be a race between

**the squishiest of EU politicians,
**the most cowardly of the WEF/EU "leadership",
**new military hardware contracts (MIC, Russia, EU),
**how quickly the EU can restart coal and/or nuclear power plants before winter,
**how hard the Ukraine/Russian mafia and oligarchs will play hardball with PedoClown_TheWhore regime,
**how much more of US citizen taxpayer money can reasonably be expected to be stolen and laundered through Ukraine,
**how long GW Zelensky and cronies can gaslight, threaten and propagandize the needless deaths of their own citizens to the world,
**how long before the Ukraine military collapses and runs for the western border,
**and after that happens, how soon GW Zelensky and other politically- and financially-connected oligarchs, flee the country with all that money,
**and finally, just how hot a summer, how wet/cold an Autumn, and how soon Winter comes to Europe and western Russia.

That last one is a hard and unavoidable deadline.

[JonPreston]

Excellent summary. Thanks

[MalPearce]

Doesn’t Russia have SOME agency in there?

I mean, I’m willing to buy the presence of a bit of “tail wagging the dog” but heck, they’re an 11 time zone country that Putin’s always reckoned could take the three Baltic states, Ukraine, Ukzbekistan, Georgia, Moldova and Chechnya back with one arm tied behind its back.

And, to be fair to the guy, he’s managed quite a large bit of that shopping list in the time he and his mates have been looting a trillion dollars out of the Russian economy.

I just don’t buy that poor old impotent Russia is completely a hostage to fortune in this conflict.