It’s relatively easy for an occupier to take a major city. But taking it, and HOLDING it are entirely different things.
Hit and run gorilla warfare against whatever government they try to set up will be easy to pull up with a shoestring budget and low casualties.
For partisan warfare to exit you must have a hostile population. In that place Donbas, it seems most favor Russian forces and an underground war will not be possible. It depends on if the people believe they get a better shake from Putin than from Mr. Z. Banning Russian language is not a way to win hearts and minds for Russian Speakers. It would be like trying to ban Spanish in California.
“Hit and run gorilla warfare against whatever government they try to set up will be easy to pull up with a shoestring budget and low casualties.”
“Gorilla war”, LOL. Don’t you think that Ukrainians themselves are going to deal with the possible insurgency if it is to take place? Worked just great in Donbas for 9 years.
Besides, they now have revenge forever.
Guerilla. Gorillas, while strong and aggressive when riled, tend to charge right at a machine gun nest or tank baring their teeth, and die.
“The flies have conquered the flypaper”—from The Moon is Full by John Steinbeck