Posted on 06/18/2022 8:21:42 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
As Russia tries to take the initiative in eastern Ukraine, Moscow has had to find fresh manpower from some unlikely places for what is shaping up to be a crucial phase of the war.
Since the beginning of what the Kremlin calls its special military operation, it has tried to pursue its campaign with an army at peacetime strength. The results have been mixed. Though Russian forces have made gains in the east and south of the country, they sustained crushing losses in Moscow’s initial attempt to seize Kyiv, by some counts losing as many soldiers as the old Soviet Union did in Afghanistan.
Yet Russia’s leadership has been reluctant to take the step of declaring war, which would allow it to order a full mobilization of fighting-age men. That, analysts say, would tie Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own fate too closely to the outcome.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Archived link: https://archive.ph/NexRI
“tries to take the initiative”
LOL. Who has the initiative in the East right now? The idiots forgot Gen. Winfield Scott.
80/20 rule here, 20% leadership decisions makes 80% losses.
—and unfortunately for the Ukraine, the Russians haven’t forgotten that to “win” a war, you do like the Allies did to Japan and Germany, Sherman did to Georgia and Scipio to Carthage-
No, Russia is methodically winning just as they planned. They are holding back for humanitarian reasons. They our on the side of God since they built a new military cathedral, etc.
The problem for Russia is Ukraine is not the end, but just the beginning. To succeed they need to take control of parts of the baltics, Poland, Moldova, and Romania.
Not seeing how they get that done.
Ukraine has a very narrow path to success; mlrs and himars might improve that (counter artillery and supply interdiction). But it requires inflicting politically intolerable losses on Russia. Not easy.
Russia is using up mountains of artillery to take each city.
Even if they win, they are using up men and ammo at a tremendous rate.
Some said they are using WWII stockpiles.
Has anyone explored this issue?
This war will not be a long one. Should be over by the end of August. The Peace talks may well be the most destructive as they were in Korea years ago.
However, the war is now 35 times as long as it was originally forecast to be, by most "competent authorities".
A classic Russian tactic and they are succeeding with it. Their six-axis "shock and awe" tactics failed them completely, so they are going back to what they know.
The goal is not to "take the city", but rather to exterminate it.
Other analysts, such as Peter Zeihan, maintain that it will take at least 500,000 Russian soldiers killed-in-action to stop the Ukraine war. That has not happened yet.
If the Russians do take Ukraine, they will take all of it. They won't stop there either. They will press claims against Latvia, Estonia, and Moldova. There could be possible claims against Romania and Poland. The reason for this is to shorten the borders of conquered regions and establish block points at natural geographic features in those areas. The Russians need to hold the zones that they clear. They do not need the cities or the Ukrainian civilian population in those zones.
And because Germany and Turkey are dependent on Russian energy sources, the Russians will demand the effective removal of those countries from NATO as part of the "Peace Negotiations".
Russians are going for all the marbles.
They may not have enough soldiers to do it. Ukraine will run out of soldiers before Russia runs out of soldiers. But the European reaction makes the Russian follow-up much less certain. Time and demographics are not favorable to the Russians. They cannot afford a decade of guerrilla war on the borderlands.
If they do not succeed at this now, they never will. And the Russian nation will die. That is what seems to be their perspective.
They are holding back for humanitarian reasons.
And there is a sucker born every day.
They are not. The war is a race against dwindling supplies. They are using all of their reserves of material and men.
BTW, we are using up our supplies faster than they can be replaced as well. All parties in this conflict are going to get much weaker as it continues. It is only a matter of who drops first. That is still an open question.
A "Short Victorious War" almost never works out as envisioned by the political elites who start them.
Humanitarianism is thr Red Army’s ethos.
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