Posted on 06/12/2022 2:52:35 AM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Almost 4 months after the start of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war turned into an "artillery duel". And victories in battles are increasingly being won by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A significant role in this is played by the supply of Western weapons, which are gaining momentum, but are still insufficient. Der Spiegel writes about this in an analytical article.
"At the beginning of the offensive, when Russian troops began to advance in large columns from the north to major Ukrainian cities such as Kiev and Kharkiv, the goal was to lure the enemy into ambushes, where anti-tank weapons were waiting for him. However, now that the struggle has migrated to the vast steppes of the south and east of Ukraine, it has become more violent, more ruthless... Courage, experience and imagination do not help much when the necessary weapons are not at hand," the newspaper writes.
Journalists quote the Ukrainian deputy, Colonel Roman Kostenko, who now commands a special unit that works closely with the Gunners. The MP believes that it is artillery that will be of decisive importance in the battle for the Ukrainian South, where the unit headed by him is fighting.
The publication notes that if initially the Ukrainian army had mainly Soviet-made artillery systems at its disposal, now the share of Western equipment is growing.
"On one of the fields covered with artillery, M777 is firing at Russian positions. The United States promised the Ukrainian military 108 such howitzers, as well as 200,000 rounds of ammunition for them. Howitzers are not self-propelled, they are towed by other vehicles. In addition, the" Triple Seven", which the Ukrainians call" three axes", has a longer range than Russian artillery, and uses standard - sized NATO shells that can be replenished, " the newspaper writes, adding that Norway and France also supplied Ukrainian artillery.
According to adviser to the head of the Office of the president of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich, the supply of Western artillery is "decisive" for the situation at the front today. Without them, he says, "the enemy would now storm Zaporozhye, take Lisichansk and surround Slavyansk."
"In close combat, battalion vs battalion, we win," says Arestovich. "Our problem is that the enemy is shooting at us with almost impunity from a long distance." This, according to him, explains the high Ukrainian losses of up to 100 servicemen daily. Ukraine, he adds, ran out of ammunition for its own rocket launchers in early April, "except for the inviolable reserve," the author of the article quotes Arestovich's statement.
At the same time, the Russian occupiers do not experience a shortage of artillery and ammunition - and use them at full capacity in the Donbas.
"The Ukrainian commander on the Eastern Front called Russian tactics a 'wall of fire'. Before each attack, they create a "blanket" of artillery fire, which allows them to inflict losses on Ukrainian defenders. And the Russians are unlikely to run out of ammunition in the near future: "they use Soviet-era stocks, and the Soviets were not stingy when it came to weapons." The commander also praises the New M777 howitzers." the Russians are afraid of them, " he says.
Journalists also quote John Spencer, a military expert at the Madison Policy Forum think tank, who believes that these Western systems "significantly affect the Donbass."
"Ukrainians are now waiting for the next delivery from the West. The United States intends to send four M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. And the British promised several M270 systems, a multiple launch rocket system with a range of up to 80 kilometers. This is not only twice as much as that of American howitzers, but also slightly exceeds the range of comparable Russian systems. And the Germans promised to deliver four MARS II systems by the end of June," writes Der Spiegel.
Western rocket launchers are capable of destroying enemy artillery from a long distance. And while Russian missile launchers are notorious for their inaccuracy, with a scattering radius of 170 meters, HIMARS and M270 allow accurate strikes provided that GPS-guided missiles are used.
"These systems will really make a difference," said Mark Kanchian, an analyst at The Washington - based think tank at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The problem, however, is that the eight systems promised by the Americans, British and Germans are not enough to protect against Russian offensive along the entire front line. "10 systems are probably enough for the Donbass alone, but it is likely that at least twice as many are needed for the rest of the front," Kanchian said.
Journalists state that recently Ukraine has been conducting counterattacks in the southern region, the medium – term goal is to recapture the territory west of the Dnieper. Russia captured Kherson, which gave it a springboard on the West Bank of the river, from which it could move to Odessa.
Now, says Colonel Kostenko, the Ukrainian army is able to strike at the initial positions of the invaders with the help of targeted artillery, which is controlled using drones.
"But then they send reserves, and we can't protect the territory," he says.
According to Kostenko, Modern Multiple Launch Rocket Systems with their long range will allow Ukrainian soldiers to also attack Russia's reserve lines, which will facilitate the maintenance of the recaptured territory.
"Meanwhile, the United States has made it quite clear about the possibilities of weapons systems, taking president Zelensky's promise that Ukraine will not use rocket launchers to fire at Russian territory. And Washington decided not to supply the so-called ATACMS missile, which can be launched by the same launchers, but has a range of up to 300 km. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not seem impressed by the announced deliveries of missile systems, because he said that they "will not change anything in essence," the newspaper writes.
And even those MLRS that are already on the way will not be able to start using immediately.
"The question is how quickly Ukraine will actually be able to deploy multiple launch rocket systems. Four HIMARS systems from the United States have already been transported to Europe, but Ukrainian soldiers still need to be trained in their use, and this training is given three weeks. Meanwhile, German systems require software configuration, which can lead to significant delays, possibly even before winter," the publication writes.
Journalists recalled that the German government is delaying the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
So far, Berlin has only supplied light weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, 16 million rounds of ammunition, 50 field medical vehicles, and 80 armored SUVs.
"However, when it comes to heavy weapons, all that Ukraine has received from Berlin is promises. Other countries sent much more. Poland, for example, supplied 230 upgraded T-72 battle tanks, and the Czech Republic — 61 armored personnel carriers," States Der Spiegel.
The publication also noted the "huge solidarity" of Eastern European countries with Ukraine, which was a victim of Russian aggression.
"In tiny Lithuania, the population raised 5 million euros to buy a Bayraktar combat drone for Ukrainians. And the Eastern European ones also helped in other ways: they still had a significant number of Soviet weapons that the Ukrainians could easily use. Western systems may be better, but they need training," the newspaper writes.
Recall that on June 11, it became known when Ukraine will receive the long-suffering howitzers from Germany. According to the Ukrainian ambassador to this country Andriy Melnyk, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers are approximately on June 22. After that, German Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns are expected to be delivered.
Only verified information is available in the Obozrevatel Telegram channel and in Viber. Don't be led to fakes
[Latest from American analyst Moon of Alabama. All of the * points are hyperlinked in the original.]
Ukraine Bits: No Ammo, More Casualties, Thin Lines, Propaganda And Passing The Buck
The real state of the war in Ukraine, which I had described some two months ago, has now reached the main stream media. The Zelensky regime in Ukraine is using it to beg the ‘west’ for more guns and ammunition.
* Ukraine’s At Risk of Losing War With Russia: Military Official - Newsweek
* Shortage of Artillery Ammunition Saps Ukrainian Frontline Morale - New York Times
* We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine - Guardian
* Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield - Washington Post
and many others ...
From the last link:
[T]he odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, the government adviser.
“The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from dozens of kilometers away and we can’t fire back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we don’t have the means to attack.”
Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.
Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.
The Independent claims to have seen an intelligence report that showed even worse numbers:
[Much more at link]
Being an infantryman in the front lines must be a suicide mission. I am amazed that Ukrainian soldiers will still in the trenches, waiting on attack.
These new howitzers won’t change anything, and because they are towed, they are stationary targets for counter battery fire. I wouldn’t want to be standing next to one.
I think Russia is not using GPS-guided munitions unless against insurgents. In Ukraine they use RCIC against high-value targets which you won’t spoof.
Regarding the rest, Ukraine has backed itself into corner by towing the foreign-imposed hard line.
Before February, all they had was to grant Donbas autonomy as part of Ukraine. Until the collapse of the Istanbul talks, all they had is to recognize Donbas as independent.
They kept demanding the return of Donbas and also demanded Crimea. That’s counter-productive to say the least.
Now they lost the entire Southeast and set to lose Odessa, at the very least.
If you count it for survival then they can claim victory after loss.
The point is that GPS/GNSS is real and both sides have systems that do it.
I guess my thought was aimed solely on the COST....$5M for something towed is very expensive. The system has some very expensive metal in it.
War is profit. Except for the boots on the ground.
Russian war planning is thought to extend through October and seems to anticipate gaining the upper hand through a protracted campaign focused on the limited territorial objectives of the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and Odessa. It remains to be seen if Western support for Ukraine will be sufficient to frustrate Russia's military effort.
All Western military equipment is disproportionally expensive for little use in real warfare.
That is why Russia is winning in Ukraine and going to win against Europe if it is going to be too invested in all of this.
Exactly!
But some FReepers here consistently emphasize the weaknesses ONLY of the Ukrainian side.
I'm more than willing to admit that the Ukrainians are currently in a desperate military situation. But for some "doom-and-gloom" FReepers - who might also have other motives - that isn't good enough.
Regards,
Russia isn’t the threat to Europe.
Ultimately, Turkey will be the biggest threat to Europe because of the millions of Muslims throughout Europe who will support Turkey.
What I would say to your comment is that while the US has systems that do this, they are not very likely technology or systems that the US is willing to give away to an uncontrolled miasma of defenders, militia, RA or just Ukraine in general, IMO.
I kind of liken it to the case of the heavily armored knights of yore. Expensive (training and equipment) to field and vulnerable in certain aspects. One of those is swarming by attackers. Bring down the armored horse and it was just a matter of time.
The battles have to chosen carefully along with the right complement of support forces.
It depends on the exact artillery pieces and it’s not true for all. Essentially they are the same or very marginal difference, unless the smart components are involved that are barely practical in large scale war.
Regarding the Russian objectives, they are voiced in a very vague form and everything regarding expected gains is just a wild speculation.
It is reasonable to believe that the original reliance was on some political deal with the opposition forces, whereas half-assed invasion with restricted rules of engagement was a sort of background.
If it is true, then it didn’t work very early and taking the majority pro-Russian parts is the logical alternative plan.
Technically you are right, but then Europe’s reaction to this little Putin’s adventure was quite shocking for the Russians and many view Europe as an enemy at this point. The right solution for both sides was to make Ukraine a stable functional state profiting from both sides, instead of militarized anti-Russian bogey man.
This sounds just backward to me.
The US and EU instigated this conflict with a goal of regime change in Russia. They wanted to start a war so they could implement sanctions that they intended to bring Russia to its knees.
The Russian regime just needs to survive to come out on top and for the US and EU to fail in their mission.
I don’t think so. It is more like a shaman with a magic pen against a sword. A lot have been said about how good Javelins and NLAWs are. There is no evidence so far apart from media propaganda. There are phones of dead Ukrainians with google search history of how to troubleshoot Javelins. The POWs and rebels who tried to use them say they are good for nothing.
Finally a man who sees the wood behind the trees. Winning the war is critical for Russia in this setup indeed.
If Russia loses, Turkey Rises. A strong Russia is the only thing standing in the way of a new Ottoman Empire.
"Our problem is that the enemy is shooting at us with almost impunity from a long distance."
Terrible article. Nowhere does it answer the question of how the Orcs know were to target. Reading the article it makes it seem as if weapons range is the only determining factor. That is far from the truth.
How do you see a target that is 15-30 miles away and pinpoint it with accuracy? Drones, of course, not satellites. Artillery needs live coordinates to correct fire, something not done with satellites which are only usable at certain times when they are over the battlefield.
The Orcs have the Orlon-10.
Orlon-10s are a strategic problem that the ZSU does no know how to deal with now. The Orlon-10 embedded in battalion artillery; they cannot taken away by other units, and all information stays with the artillery unit. The Orlon runs dedicated artillery software. The ZSU has only short range commercial drones (18km under the best of conditions), good for battalion level infantry fighting, but not for spotting, targeting and correcting fire on long range artillery.
One of the principle reasons the Orcs are doing so well with their artillery; makes them a deadly power on the battlefield; a reason why UA is not able to do successful offenses so far.
When it was first seen, people laughed at simplistic parts. Its camera was more than enough to correct Orc artillery fire. Nonetheless, the system was pushed further.
The RGF replaced old camera with a thermal imaging camera: uses a PICO640Gen2, 640x480, 17µm chip - can detect fast moving objects with enhanced image quality - sharp contrast, fluid smooth image, high uniformity. Now has 50mm lens and can see human-sized objects at 455m. All of that was a very significant upgrade making it much more deadly than it was.
The circuit board used for navigation was not dependent on GPS talking it resistant to some anti-UAV guns. It flew using optical ground information. However, Orcs cannot make new boards and so they replaced the old board with a primitive GPS based circuit board. Now it is susceptible to GPS attacks. Its better for Orc Artillery, but easier to shoot down. Reason for downgrade unclear.
The arrival of the US Grey Eagles may change Orc calculus.
"Russian occupiers do not experience a shortage of artillery and ammunition"
The Orcs have fired so many 152mm and 122mm shells that they are now running low, and the Orc ammo factories will have to make more.
Previously, these shells were free made during the time of the USSR when they dreamed of conquering the world and made enough ammo to fight WWII over again. Now there will be an expense attached to the shells' manufacture.
Will that change the shear volume of fire? How fast can the large factories turn them out and in what quantities? There will be few, if any, of the very expensive advanced shells made due to Western embargoes.
It is dated June 11 and is just under 12 minutes.
Ukraine Admits Losing Artillery War and Therefore the War Itself
It will not be too much longer before we know who is closer to the truth.
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