Posted on 06/05/2022 9:30:43 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
The Russians also are threatening to also embargo their huge supply of exotic inert gas- needed to produce chips.
Vlad says Checkmate, again.
Checkmate.
“Russian oil and gas sales could hit $285 billion this year, outstripping last year’s takings by 20%.”
If the average temperature increases over the last three months continue all year, it will be the hottest year ever!
But we know that Winter will come, and the rate of change will itself change over the year.
Just as we can forecast temperature declines next Winter, we can also forecast declines in Russian oil exports to Europe through the end of the year, after that policy was formally adopted by the authorities there.
All we are seeing is a relatively short term surge in prices, offset the total revenue effect of declining volume, in the short term. Russian oil export volume is set to continue its strong decline all year.
Prices may continue up to $150 or $180 before peaking. But after prices peak, it is “Katie, Bar the door!” For Russian net revenues. OPEC agreed to start ramping up production this week, so the corrective supply force on price is already engaging. US rig count is increasing.
“Europe is a major buyer of Russian energy products, accounting for about 50% of its crude oil exports and 75% of its natural gas exports in 2021.”
Correction: Europe WAS a major buyer of Russian energy products.
By the end of this year, they intend to reduce 90% of their Russian oil imports, and 2/3rds of their Russian gas imports. They have analyzed how to achieve those reductions, and have fully funded the Program.
China will happily purchase Russia goods, foods and oil. It’s as if they are being pushed together to form a coalition.
“Russian will be left with food and fuel, and Americans will have smartphones and netflix.”
LOL! The US produces a huge amount more of natural gas than does Russia. And it produces more crude oil than Russia. And American farmers produce the way more food than Russia.
Don’t think for a split second that this doesn’t happen.
I would not count out Russia by a long shot.
None of the “vital” technologies mentioned in the article are actually necessary for their survival. Further more, since we and the Europeans have been busy circumventing the meaningless virtue signaling “sanctions” and flooding Russia with more cash than they have seen in years... they can probably get their greedy little commie fingers on everything mentioned easier than people in the west can.
You are posting fantasy from economic experts that only want to pretend that they are doing their part in the “good” fight. None of it holds up to scrutiny.
“We now have data in hand to confirm that the subsequent sanctions on Russia's oil are in fact boosting Russia's oil revenues.”
“New data! #Russia's oil and gas revenues hit another record high in April. 1.8 trillion rubles in a single month, after 1.2 trillion in March. After only 4 months, Russia's federal #budget has now already received 50% of the planned oil and gas revenue for 2022 (9.5 trillion).”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/05/08/russias-oil-revenues-are-soaring/?sh=66175b044e34 The Russian's have never made 1.5 Trillion Rubles in a single month before... And the Ruble is now worth more than it was before the "sanctions". We have more than doubled the amount of money that the Russians now have to spend. They do not want this to end. And we are also filling the pockets of corrupt Ukrainian leadership. They do not want this to end either. When neither side wants this to go away. I can guarantee that it will not.
The people being hurt by this are those who are struggling to pay record high prices for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, food and everything else. None of this is by accident and has little if anything to do with the people of Ukraine. The Russians are just the unintended beneficiaries of idiotic and contradictory leftist policies.
And you my fine patriotic friend have been duped again!
These Putards seem to have zero real world experience of the enormous amount of time and cost to reengineer or retool. Can’t get a chip for a product? “No, problem! You just get a similar one and stick it in there...”
If the average temperature increases over the last three months continue all year, it will be the hottest year ever!”
Interesting that you are also quoting global warming nonsense.
Where my wife and I live we have experienced record cold temperatures for the last several months. It has been 5 degrees colder than last year and 10 degrees colder than 5 years ago. Our summer is predicted to be much colder as well. We are experiencing crop failures because it has been too cold and too wet. You are full of sh@t as a Christmas Turkey as usual.
The people who are helping Putin the most are the idiots who keep going along with virtue signaling sanctions and meaningless contributions to corrupt Ukrainian leadership. Both Putin and Zelinsky thank you.
They are signing the contracts, and building the infrastructure, to replace Russian supplies.
New contracts are going elsewhere. Russian contracts are not being renewed. OPEC and OPEC+ have begun reallocating production quotas. Saudi Arabia alone (after last week’s OPEC meeting) is now going to start adding an additional amount of production, equal to 3% more of Russia’s total production, each month. The UAE and Iraq are also expected to announce increased production schedules soon.
It is the chance of a generation for other competing producers to snatch up huge chunks of Russia’s market share. They would all have to be fools not to do it.
Putin has killed the goose that lays the golden eggs.
Especially for natural gas, delivery contracts are for 10-20 years (to ensure that infrastructure investments are recouped). Natural gas powerhouse Qatar is now only signing new contracts that run at least 20.
On a day to day basis, it seems to move slowly. In the first quarter or two, prices spike as new supplies get bid up. By the end of this year however, massively replacing Russian supplies will be baked into the cake, and significantly underway (over well over halfway). It took decades to grow the business that is being squandered this year, by Putin’s failed gamble in the Ukraine.
No country in Europe will trust to rely on Russian supply, even if the war ended tomorrow.
I am sorry... I need to clarify. Where my wife and I live, our daily high temperatures for the past three months, something which can actually be measured and recorded have been 5 degrees cooler than last year and 10 degrees cooler than 5 years ago. June has been just as bad if not worse. The “average temperature of the world” cannot be calculated in a meaningful way even with satellites. This makes the numbers easy to manipulates as we have been seeing over and over again/
“You are full of sh@t”
That is the level of your discourse.
You believe and repeat meaningless nonsense repeated;ly. Supplies from who and where exactly BeauBo?
No, Beaubo... that is the level of your discourse. But like Biden, the emperor with no clothes, you typically do not get called on it. People buy into your meaningless drivel without forcing you to back it up. And when you try to... it all comes from Peddlers of propaganda which you want to believe in.
“Supplies from who and where exactly BeauBo?”
OPEC and North America. Everybody is getting in on the action.
OPEC and OPEC+ had their meeting this last week, and re-distributed production quotas. Saudi Arabia alone is increasing its production to cover 3% more of total (pre-war) Russian exports each month. Iraq and the UAE have plenty of capacity to ramp up their production quickly, and are expected to announce soon. US rig counts are climbing, and there is new interest among private equity to finance more production.
There was even talk at the meeting of suspending Russia from OPEC+, because of its failure to meet its production quotas (total Russian oil production has dipped below 9 million barrels per day (bpd), from its January peak over 11).
There is a fortune to made. Russian exports to Europe were under 4 million bpd before the war, but global production is around 80. So we are talking about just a few percentage points increase on a global basis.
OPEC nations have strategically prepared excess surge capability for decades as National priorities, to give them the ability to manage supply and prices. They just have to make a policy decision about how much to turn on, over what schedule.
“No,... that is the level of your discourse.”
Note the quotes. I repeated verbatim what you said.
Own the foul-mouthed ad hominem attack that you made.
—> No country in Europe will trust to rely on Russian supply, even if the war ended tomorrow.
Bagdad Beau rides again!
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