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There was a bow wave of orders before sanctions take effect, as customers stocked up, and Russian oil was selling at a discount to the market price (about 20%).

There were virtually no Government imposed bans on Russian oil during those first few months. Even the ban on Russian ships at some ports specifically excluded those carrying oil, and most of the oil is carried on non-Russian ships anyway.

Reductions so far have been mostly voluntary, in preparation for Government imposed restrictions. Is this temporary or permanent? How has total Russian production or export changed?

Some modes of shipping increased, as the article highlights. They point to an increase of around 21 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, and around 27 million bpd in May - around one million bpd more, that flowed through Greek, Cypriot and Maltese ships, over those two months.

But that was not an increase in total Russian production, or total Russian export volumes. It was just a re-routing of some.

Before the war, Russia was producing over 11 million bpd in total, now it has dipped below 9 million bpd.

Before the war, Russia sold the EU about 4 million bpd. 2-3 million bpd of that is expected to not make it to market (anywhere) at the end of this year, as actual Government restrictions go into place there.

Russia (like Iran) will continue to find routes and middlemen to move some of its oil - but they will face increasing costs and logistical difficulties, and have to pay smuggler’s discounts.

Total Russian volume is going to continue to drop, as sanctions continue to ratchet (that was actually the point of the article - identifying where Russian oil is leaking through, to recommend new policies to shut off that route).

The rising price has substantially offset the lower volumes, in terms of total revenue, but when prices drop back down, it will be on much lower total volume of exports, with higher inherent market and transportation costs. There will be whack-a-mole as new routes are cracked down upon, but the easier to identify and control main routes will reduce total volumes significantly.

OPEC and OPEC+ this last week formally reallocated production quotas, to begin formally increasing non-Russian production, to balance global supply and demand. The additional increase in Saudi Arabia’s production will be about 3% of Russia’s exports, per month. The UAE and Iraq are expected to soon begin increasing their production as well.

They have only a fraction of the lifting costs to produce oil that Russian fields have, and are much closer by ship to Europe, than Russian exports are to India or China. They also enjoy the most favorable rates for financing, insurance and transaction costs - all of which will likely be targeted by sanctions against future Russian cargoes(some, like insurance, recently went into effect for future cargoes).

There are a lot of moving parts, but this is a seismic shift in the market, and Russia is losing a huge amount of future business.