U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability

NY Slimes ^ | 03-JUN-2022 | Ana Swanson, John Ismay and Edward Wong

[SpeedyInTexas]

With magnifying glasses, screwdrivers and a delicate touch from a soldering gun, two men from an investigative group that tracks weapons pried open Russian munitions and equipment that had been captured across Ukraine.

Over a week’s visit to Ukraine last month, the investigators pulled apart every piece of advanced Russian hardware they could get their hands on, such as small laser range finders and guidance sections of cruise missiles. The researchers, who were invited by the Ukrainian security service to independently analyze advanced Russian gear, found that almost all of it included parts from companies based in the United States and the European Union: microchips, circuit boards, engines, antenna and other equipment.

“Advanced Russian weapons and communications systems have been built around Western chips,” said Damien Spleeters, one of the investigators with Conflict Armament Research, which identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition. He added that Russian companies had enjoyed access to an “unabated supply” of Western technology for decades.

[SpeedyInTexas]

"The restrictions have rendered the old-school bombing runs on tank factories and shipyards of past wars unnecessary, Mr. Klein wrote. “The democracies can replicate the effect of well-targeted bombing runs with the right set of sanctions precisely because the Russian military depends on imported equipment.”"

[SpeedyInTexas]

As we know, RuZZia is a 3rd world country...

[Fido969]

Russia has food and fuel, basically everything they need. They can survive without Netflix and smartphones.

These “sanctions” are a joke.

[coloradan]

What, it’s like a country that can’t keep baby formula on the shelves?

[SpeedyInTexas]

“food and fuel, basically everything they need”

Sounds like cave man lifestyle.

Wood to burn and a pig being roasted.

[KarlInOhio]

Now what happens when China invades Taiwan and simultaneously embargoes us? How long before we throw Taiwan to the wolves so we can again buy vital military chips and iPhones?

[MercyFlush]

China is much more likely to invade Siberia.

[Myrddin]

And China can to the exact same thing to the United States with our dependence on Taiwan and South Korean electronics manufacturers. Likewise, Ukraine/Russia provide much of the neon gas used in chip manufacturing. All the high tech stuff only exists if everyone "plays nice".

[steve8714]

Mmmmm...pig.

[Wissa]

China is much more likely to invade Siberia.

For what purpose?

[Fido969]

“food and fuel, basically everything they need”

Sounds like cave man lifestyle.

Well, with Brandon in charge, guess what we're NOT going to have.

[catnipman]

full article

https://archive.ph/v7Qsg

[Boogieman]

“They can survive without Netflix and smartphones.”

Surviving and winning a war to conquer another country are two different things.

[Boogieman]

“Now what happens when China invades Taiwan and simultaneously embargoes us?”

Then China’s economy crashes, since they are dependent on imports and almost all of their primary trade partners are the US and US allies.

[Boogieman]

“And China can to the exact same thing to the United States with our dependence on Taiwan and South Korean electronics manufacturers.”

Not quite. It’s my understanding that while we rely on Chinese manufacturing for most of our consumer electronics, the electronics we need for stuff like precision guided bombs and advanced targeting systems is manufactured by the US military-industrial complex, not by China.

So we would be missing out on some phones and televisions, but we’d still be able to keep churning out weapons of war.

[daniel1212]

"Not quite. It’s my understanding that while we rely on Chinese manufacturing for most of our consumer electronics, the electronics we need for stuff like precision guided bombs and advanced targeting systems is manufactured by the US military-industrial complex, not by China. So we would be missing out on some phones and televisions, but we’d still be able to keep churning out weapons of war."

But there are these little issues:

US put China-made parts in F-35 fighter program - CNBC https://www.cnbc.com › 2014/01/03 › us-put-china-ma... Jan 3, 2014 — The Pentagon waived laws banning Chinese-built components on US ... the F-35​, the U.S. military's next generation fighter, the documents show. ... may become dependent on parts made by a potential future adversary.

China’s growing stake in DoD supply chains:

New data from Govini, an artificial intelligence-driven analysis firm, shows China’s increasing presence in the Pentagon’s supply chain.

“From 2010–2019, the number of Chinese suppliers in the [Defense] Department’s supplier base in the sample Govini assessed increased by a total of 420%, to 655, across numerous critical industries. In comparison, U.S. companies grew 97%, to 2,219,” the company said in a new analysis. “Moreover, Chinese suppliers’ share of these critical industries grew to 9% in 2019, up from 6% in 2010. The prevalence of China-based companies across the Department’s supplier base will make it difficult to identify with certainty all of the cases where they are a single-source provider of a key technology or material.”

Chinese companies have increased their shares, particularly in “specialty chemicals, major

diversified chemicals, telecommunications equipment and electronic components,” according to Govini.

“China-based companies have the greatest share of the supplier base in Telecommunications Equipment (20%) and Specialty Chemicals (17%), and have over 10% of the supplier base in nine other critical industries,” the report states. “In the Semiconductors industry, the number of China-based companies has grown 364% between 2010 and 2019, to 65 companies, increasing China’s share to 13% from 7%; the share of U.S. companies (144 in 2019) dropped to 28% from 56% due to a surge of other foreign suppliers.”

While the Pentagon doesn’t directly do business with Chinese companies, they start appearing in the lower tiers of the supply chain. Here are some of Govini’s findings:

• “U.S.-based companies make up less than half of the supplier base starting at Tier 2 and stabilize at approximately 25% by Tiers 4 and 5; U.S. companies have the greatest share in the Data Processing Services (58%), Biotechnology (52%), and Packaged Software (48%) industries, - https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/08/global-business-brief-august-13-2020/167699/

  But maybe they can get them in on Ebay in a (God forbid) war

  U.S. military comes to grips with over-reliance on Chinese ... https://www.reuters.com › article › us-usa-military-china Oct 2, 2018 — A Pentagon-led review ordered by President Donald Trump has identified hundreds of instances where the U.S. military depends on foreign ..

  How Space Became the Next 'Great Power' Contest Between ... https://www.nytimes.com › U.S. › Politics May 6, 2021 — Chinese officials noticed how much the U.S. military's successes were [quite a report]

  Southeast Asia will take a major economic hit if shipping is blocked in the South China Sea...About 80% of global trade is carried by sea, and estimates of the volume carried through the South China Sea range from 20% to 33%...Facing a total freeze on international shipping, Taiwan’s economy would contract by a third, while Singapore’s economy would fall by 22%, according to the baseline estimate. Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia would suffer falls of between 10% and 15%. The modelling shows the economic impact would be lowest for countries with shorter trade routes and those best able to offset the loss of international trade with domestic spending. China’s economy would only face a loss of 0.7% because it has huge domestic markets and ports outside the potential conflict zone.

  This past idea did not help :

  U.S. Will Allow Computer Sale To Court China - The New York ... www.nytimes.com › 1993/11/19 › world › us-will-allow-... Nov 19, 1993 — In a good-will gesture toward China, the Clinton Administration has agreed to sell it a sophisticated $8 million supercomputer, senior Administration officials said today. The decision is part of the Administration's strategy to embrace rather than isolate China despite disagreements over human rights, weapons proliferation and trade. [https://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/19/world/us-will-allow-computer-sale-to-court-china.html]

  Meanwhile,

  

But there are these little issues:

US put China-made parts in F-35 fighter program - CNBC https://www.cnbc.com › 2014/01/03 › us-put-china-ma... Jan 3, 2014 — The Pentagon waived laws banning Chinese-built components on US ... the F-35​, the U.S. military's next generation fighter, the documents show. ... may become dependent on parts made by a potential future adversary.

China’s growing stake in DoD supply chains:

New data from Govini, an artificial intelligence-driven analysis firm, shows China’s increasing presence in the Pentagon’s supply chain.

“From 2010–2019, the number of Chinese suppliers in the [Defense] Department’s supplier base in the sample Govini assessed increased by a total of 420%, to 655, across numerous critical industries. In comparison, U.S. companies grew 97%, to 2,219,” the company said in a new analysis. “Moreover, Chinese suppliers’ share of these critical industries grew to 9% in 2019, up from 6% in 2010. The prevalence of China-based companies across the Department’s supplier base will make it difficult to identify with certainty all of the cases where they are a single-source provider of a key technology or material.”

Chinese companies have increased their shares, particularly in “specialty chemicals, major

diversified chemicals, telecommunications equipment and electronic components,” according to Govini.

“China-based companies have the greatest share of the supplier base in Telecommunications Equipment (20%) and Specialty Chemicals (17%), and have over 10% of the supplier base in nine other critical industries,” the report states. “In the Semiconductors industry, the number of China-based companies has grown 364% between 2010 and 2019, to 65 companies, increasing China’s share to 13% from 7%; the share of U.S. companies (144 in 2019) dropped to 28% from 56% due to a surge of other foreign suppliers.”

While the Pentagon doesn’t directly do business with Chinese companies, they start appearing in the lower tiers of the supply chain. Here are some of Govini’s findings:

• “U.S.-based companies make up less than half of the supplier base starting at Tier 2 and stabilize at approximately 25% by Tiers 4 and 5; U.S. companies have the greatest share in the Data Processing Services (58%), Biotechnology (52%), and Packaged Software (48%) industries, - https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/08/global-business-brief-august-13-2020/167699/

  But maybe they can get them in on Ebay in a (God forbid) war

  U.S. military comes to grips with over-reliance on Chinese ... https://www.reuters.com › article › us-usa-military-china Oct 2, 2018 — A Pentagon-led review ordered by President Donald Trump has identified hundreds of instances where the U.S. military depends on foreign ..

  How Space Became the Next 'Great Power' Contest Between ... https://www.nytimes.com › U.S. › Politics May 6, 2021 — Chinese officials noticed how much the U.S. military's successes were [quite a report]

  Southeast Asia will take a major economic hit if shipping is blocked in the South China Sea...About 80% of global trade is carried by sea, and estimates of the volume carried through the South China Sea range from 20% to 33%...Facing a total freeze on international shipping, Taiwan’s economy would contract by a third, while Singapore’s economy would fall by 22%, according to the baseline estimate. Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia would suffer falls of between 10% and 15%. The modelling shows the economic impact would be lowest for countries with shorter trade routes and those best able to offset the loss of international trade with domestic spending. China’s economy would only face a loss of 0.7% because it has huge domestic markets and ports outside the potential conflict zone.

  This past idea did not help :

  U.S. Will Allow Computer Sale To Court China - The New York ... www.nytimes.com › 1993/11/19 › world › us-will-allow-... Nov 19, 1993 — In a good-will gesture toward China, the Clinton Administration has agreed to sell it a sophisticated $8 million supercomputer, senior Administration officials said today. The decision is part of the Administration's strategy to embrace rather than isolate China despite disagreements over human rights, weapons proliferation and trade. [https://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/19/world/us-will-allow-computer-sale-to-court-china.html]

  Meanwhile,

  

[daniel1212]

And that the cry of the MSM about how US defense spending is so much more than China and Russia is so much sophistry, since it is ignores procurement costs in addition to other differences.

If you account for differences in reporting structure, purchasing power, and labor costs, you find that China’s 2017 defense budget provided 87 percent of the purchasing power of American’s 2017 defense budget.  This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that the United States spends more on its military than the next 12 countries combined or that China lags annual U.S. military spending by close to $400 billion. Those misleading comparisons are based on simply converting Beijing’s reported defense budget from yuan to dollars by applying a market exchange rate. That produces a distorted picture. - https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/chinas-defense-spending-larger-it-looks

Even Politio cites research by LTSG, a defense consultancy, that

Research into Chinese defense investments since 2000 reveals that, compared with the United States, China has prioritized purchasing weapons and equipment over spending on personnel salaries or on operations and maintenance. As a result, the U.S. military is on track to be outgunned — potentially in quantity and quality of armaments — by the end of President Joe Biden’s first term. The lack of data on Chinese defense spending reflects the notorious unreliability of official releases from Beijing. Annual People’s Republic of China Finance Ministry announcements of the defense budget diverge from Defense Ministry disclosures, and have historically omitted cost categories that other countries include, such as weapons imports.

To address this challenge, LTSG research group conducted a multiyear, open-source effort to estimate Chinese defense spending since 2000 by service across different categories such as personnel, operations and maintenance, and procurement...For procurement, U.S. dollar estimates were converted to renminbi. The results showed consistent annual inflation-adjusted growth of roughly 10 percent for the past 20 years..If, as projected, by 2024 the PLA’s annual procurement value exceeds that of the U.S. military, then by about 2030 the United States will no longer boast the world’s most advanced fighting force in total inventory value.

- https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/05/27/china-could-soon-outgun-the-us-493014

And besides procurement costs,

The official defense budget does not account for all of China’s military-related activities. For example, many defense-related outlays fall directly under the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military authority, chaired by Xi Jinping. For instance, the People’s Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary force charged with maintaining internal security and supporting the military in times of war, is under the command of the CMC but not included in the budget. The Chinese Coast Guard, which plays a key role in asserting China’s maritime claims and was placed under the control of the PAP in 2018, is likewise excluded from the official budget.

According to SIPRI, China’s military spending far exceeds that of its neighbors and was greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2019. Cross-national comparisons are insightful, but accounting for variations in prices is difficult. For example, the current annual pay for an entry-level active-duty U.S. soldier (about $39,600) would likely cover the cost of several PLA soldiers due to price differences. When adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), China’s 2019 defense expenditure rises by well over $100 billion. - https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-chinas-2021-defense-budget