Posted on 05/30/2022 4:29:46 AM PDT by FarCenter
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The rapid decline will have a profound impact on China’s economy.
China’s working-age population peaked in 2014 and is projected to shrink to less than one-third of that peak by 2100.
China’s elderly population (aged 65 and above) is expected to continue to climb for most of that time, passing China’s working-age population near 2080.
This means that while there are currently 100 working-age people available to support every 20 elderly people, by 2100, 100 working-age Chinese will have to support as many as 120 elderly Chinese.
The annual average decline of 1.73% in China’s working-age population sets the scene for much lower economic growth unless productivity advances rapidly.
Higher labor costs, driven by the rapidly shrinking labor force, are set to push low-margin, labor-intensive manufacturing out of China to labor-abundant countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and India.
Already manufacturing labor costs in China are twice as high as in Vietnam.
The economic pain of supporting large numbers of retirees will be less in China. Elderly Chinese work until they die, if only doing intensive gardening to raise food.
bkmk for study
The Chinese are not beyond euthanizing their elderly if required.
This 78 year extrapolation ignores productivity growth.
If productivity grows 2% per year, productivity will grow by 4.7 X times in 78 years.
Instead of 100 workers supporting 120 elderly Chinese, it will be the same as 470 (4.7 X 100) workers supporting 120 elderly.
That is almost the same ratio as today - 5 workers to 1 elderly in 2022. 4 workers to 1 elderly in 2100.
(The Chinese are not beyond euthanizing their elderly if required)
In Obamacare it’s death panels that aren’t actually called “death panels” so the sheep 🐑🐑🐑 stay ignorant.
Maybe the Chinese Govt should’ve been putting the Uyghurs to work rather than slicing and dicing them for body parts.
The fallacy is the working age projections.
When push comes to shove, the working age will be forced to increase. Old folks must work because they must in order to survive
What? Are they going to deliberately expose the old folks in the old folks homes to actively infectious COVID patients?
No one with a shred of humanity would be that evil, not even the Chinese. Maybe a democrat?
China is still reasonably Confucian with the respect for the elderly that that implies. So euthanizing the elderly is unlikely.
On the other hand, by necessity, they are unlikely to adopt US standards of medical care where we are spending 16% of GDP on medical care, with about a fourth of that spent treating people during the last 18 months of life.
There are about 13 million Uyghurs in China, or less than 1% of the population. Their numbers are too small to matter demographically.
Correct.
Actually, the Chinese locked people in their homes and apartments when this all started.
See post 12.
Welded, not merely locked.
The one-child policy is coming back to haunt the Chicoms.
Ahhh. You remember. ;-)
Just hope its not your grandchildren and great-grandchildren that will be forced to fill in the gap.
The controversial directive for New York nursing homes to admit COVID-19 patients increased the death toll among residents — and Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s claims otherwise have been disproven
Projecting out 60 yrs into the future is silly.
So many far off predictions turn out wrong when trends seen now do not become the true trend in time.
I think technology could be changing the viability of an economy with an aging population.
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