Posted on 05/30/2022 3:55:34 AM PDT by FarCenter
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It is easy to forget that part of the reason behind Biden’s almost irrational commitment to fight in Ukraine has been to cover up his massive failure in Afghanistan, marked by the hasty and chaotic retreat of American troops last August that allowed the Taliban to declare a clear victory.
The Ukraine gambit appears to have been a shrewd, if not cynical policy: NATO seems together as never before, the US and its allies are shipping in weapons at an unprecedented pace and Ukraine seems to be shoving the Russians back. It looked as if Biden could walk away a big hero, linking arms with Zelensky.
Biden was even desperate to go to Kiev to stand side by side with Zelensky. But intelligence sources were telling a different story. Instead, Biden sent his wife to meet Mrs Zelensky while he stayed home. His secretary of defense and JCS chairman pleaded with the Russians to stop and agree to a ceasefire.
Maybe they dangled some other incentives – we still don’t know – but Russia was not about to take the bait.
There are at least two reasons why Russia declined. The first, and easiest to understand, is that at last they thought they had turned around the Ukraine disaster and were heading for a win.
The second, closely related to the first, is that President Vladimir Putin needs a victory, not a ceasefire. He is under the gun at home and his job is very much on the line. Either Putin wins or he is out. A ceasefire is negative for him on both counts.
What this means for the Ukrainians is that they will get the war to end only after a full deal is agreed, not before. At that point, the fighting will stop, as it stopped on the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the armistice, when Germany agreed to surrender.
This is a supreme lifetime accomplishment. Putin could die right now and Russians would grieve but they would not suffer. Putin has seen to it that pretty much all of the people involved in running Russia are all up to his own standard of competence and patriotism.
I think it’s more than trying to cover up his failure in Afghanistan; ever watch one of those movies where the bad guy gets in power by having a blackmail file? I think that’s what Russia was after that or give them a black male file on the current most powerful people in the world, those corrupt people who are running their money through Ukraine to wash it.
There will be no ceasefire until it is to the advantage of both parties to have one. The parties are jockeying for an advantage so they can have a ceasefire on their terms. So far, that hasn’t happened. Russia will not stop until either the troops are dead, surrendered, or refuse to fight. That’s because if Russia losses, or appears to lose, then it ends the power of the guy at the top. In a way, Putin doesn’t have skin in the game as he personally is not affected by sending men to die so his rule doesn’t end.
Zalenski can’t give up as ceding ground to Russia after so many deaths will be seen as a loss and likely he’d be replaced at the next election. (Assuming there is one, that is.) The West will likely keep feeding weapons and, as one wag put it, “The West will fight to the last Ukrainian.” That’s because the West sees that if the war doesn’t wound Russia sufficiently then the next war might be on their territory. 9This is why we’re sending forty billion to Ukraine.) And, let’s face it, this “war” has been going on in secret since the nineties, with airline shoot-down’s, political sabotage, Russian bots and every war-by-other-means trick in the book.
Losers always want to negotiate a peace deal.
A ceasefire is useful only if you can continue the conflict by other means and win in the end.
For example, after the armistice in November 1918, Britain continued the naval blockade of Germany and starved them into submitting to the Versailles Treaty in 1919.
A ceasefire in Ukraine would not end any of the non-kinetic hostilities between NATO and Russia.
I have concluded that the end will be a stalemate produced by a river.
The Russians can’t mount a successful attack across the river and Ukraine can’t cross the river to drive the Russians out.
If true, Russians are royally screwed. Because this war, the state of Russia's military and the Russian economy all suck.
Except if you are one of the Oligarchs who have bled billions from the country and bought super yachts.
Winners laugh
Losers say “Deal!”
“A ceasefire is useful only if you can continue the conflict by other means and win in the end.”
Yes. And, Russia is a master at this sort of non kinetic war.
Don’t read or get out much, do ya?
We’ll see.
I could ask you that question.
Why the Putin worship?
I agree that the Russians will go no Dneiper into Ukraine. Except possibly Odessa.
A river in Poland maybe...
The Russians are activating their reserve T-62 tanks manufactured in the early 60s. They are slower, less armored, less distance between feelings, and a 4 man crew. They are running out of missiles, they have raised the conscript call up to age 42, and their air forces has been essentially grounded.
Furthermore, they can’t produce any T-14 modern MBTs due to sanctions, their economy will be reduced 10% this year, and higher next year.
The biggest news is China, the largest consumer of wheat, is demanding an armistice so wheat shipments from the Black Sea can resume. China is very concerned about the prospect of famine in their country and competition from other countries.
Lloyd’s of London has to be nervous about the unknown floating mines.
We are dealing with NAZIS in Ukraine and in the propaganda mills of the West. They are on a robot powered gotterdammerung freight train and will need to be blasted to Hamburg rubble. Make them pay.
The arms manufacturers and NGO’S gotta squeeze some more cash out of this first.
Libtards are the party of war and world wide weapons proliferation 🤪
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