I think Russia is more likely than not to take Donbas. However I also believe that this has cost them more and they will end up with less than expected. That might count as a win but a Pyrrhic one. This war has demonstrated that their equipment is overrated, their logistic ability to project power outside their own border is pathetic and their military culture is antiquated.
I don’t disagree.
What will be interesting is what will happen to the Russian military in 10 or 20 years. If they correctly identify their areas of weakness, and if they cut through red tape and malarky and make serious efforts to correct their areas of weakness, they may be far more formidable a generation from now.
Or they may just drift and wallow in corruption, as many military-industrial complexes do, and they may never be a truly strong military again.