Posted on 05/24/2022 5:40:50 AM PDT by Kaslin
For half a decade now, America's media elite have been obsessed with former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party's conversion to Trumpism.
Press and TV are daily consumed with his actions and prospects and the future of the party he captured in 2016.
Perhaps it is time to consider the prospects of President Joe Biden and the political future of his embattled presidency.
What are the odds that Biden, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama before him, will run again in 2024, win reelection, serve out a second term and transfer his office to the 47th president on Jan. 20, 2029?
My guess: The odds of that happening are roughly the same as the odds that last-minute entry Rich Strike would win the Kentucky Derby, as he left the starting gate at Churchill Downs at 80-1.
Consider the first hurdle Biden faces on the way to renomination in 2024 -- the midterm elections five months off.
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached record highs in January, both have seen eight weeks of wipeouts of trillions of dollars in value as we approached bear-market territory by the end of last week.
Stock portfolios, pensions and retirement benefit plans have been gutted. These massive market losses are also a lead indicator pointing to a recession right ahead, just as voters pass judgment on a Democratic Party that controls the White House and both houses of Congress.
But even before we reach recession, Americans have already been living with a Biden inflation of 8% that has lasted for months and affected all the necessities of normal life, such as groceries and gasoline.
And the worst seems yet to come.
The Federal Reserve has reversed course from its easy money days and begun to raise interest rates to squeeze the Biden inflation out of the economy. What lies ahead may remind people who were around then of Jimmy Carter's "stagflation," where interest rates hit 21% to kill an inflation that reached 13%.
As for the crisis on the southern border, it is deeper than ever. Some 234,000 migrants were caught illegally entering the U.S. in April alone, with thousands of others evading any contact with U.S. authorities.
This is an invasion rate of some 3 million illegal migrants a year.
Shootings, killings, carjackings, criminal assaults, and smash-and-grab robberies in record numbers are the subject of our nightly news.
And the latest national polls suggest the country is holding Biden responsible. The president's approval rating is down to 39%, and only 1 in 3 Americans think he is doing a good job handling the economy and that the nation is headed in the right direction.
Now the omicron variant of COVID-19 is making a comeback; infections are again over 100,000 a day.
Biden might find consolation from how his predecessors overcame midterm defeats. Clinton in 1994 lost 54 House seats and won reelection easily in 1996. Obama lost 63 House seats in 2010 to come back and win handily over Mitt Romney in 2012.
Why cannot Biden ride out the anticipated storm in this year's midterms and come back to win election in 2024, as did Clinton and Obama?
Age has something to do with it. Clinton was 50 in his reelection year 1996. Obama was 51 in his reelection year 2012. And both were at the peak of their political powers.
Biden, on election day 2024, will be two weeks shy of his 82nd birthday. Should he serve out a second term, he would not leave the White House until he had turned 86. Biden has been America's oldest president since the day he took office.
Alexander Hamilton in the Federalist Papers wrote of "energy in the executive" as being an indispensable attribute of good government.
Does Biden, with his shuffling gait, regular gaffes, and physical and cognitive decline manifest that attribute of which Hamilton wrote?
The likely scenario for Biden?
His party sustains a crushing defeat in November comparable to what Clinton and Obama suffered. But the party does not immediately rally around Biden as present and future leader, as it did with Clinton and Obama. Critics inside the Democratic coalition begin to blame Biden for the loss.
Ambitious Democrats, sensing disaster if Biden tops the ticket in 2024, begin to call for him to stand down and give way to a younger candidate, a new face, in 2024.
One or two progressives declare for president, and the pressure builds on Biden to avoid a personal and political humiliation in the 2024 primaries by standing down, as Harry Truman did in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson did in 1968.
By early 2023, Biden will have adopted the line that dealing with the challenge of China and Russia and, at the same time, coping with recession and inflation require his full attention. And these preclude a national political campaign for reelection.
And then resident Joe Biden announces he will not run again.
I didn’t know he had a First Hurrah.
Prolly right, but it won't be long before they tell us how hamstrung they are by not having enough votes to get things done. We've seen this movie before so don't be surprised to hear this old refrain come back.
Notice how the GOP electeds don’t attack Kamala
The GOP doesn't attack anyone except its own.
I don't need a bright Indian ex pat to make a movie to convince me that Biden did not get 81 million legitimate votes. I know that that election was rigged because the IMPOSSIBLE numbers speak for themselves.
Don't believe the polls. They are suppression polls. Kemp's scalp would be a huge victory for Trump and the press has been piling on how Kemp is ahead by a wide margin.
First of all, to be considered a 'likely voter' for a poll, you must have voted in the previous election. So only voters who voted in the 2018 republican primary for governor are included in their polls. This is leaving out a huge number of people, the majority of them MAGA, who either registered to vote for the first time in 2020, or who were not inspired to vote in the 2018 primary.
Secondly, GA has open primaries. So if you are a Democrat who voted in the 2018 republican primary for governor, then you would be included in the poll as a 'likely voter' according to their standards.
What these polls do not reveal is how many Democrats were polled, and how many people refused to take part in the poll before they were able to get a sample of 800+ people.
The fact that Pence showed up at a rally last night for Kemp should have the effect of bolstering Perdue. I cannot, for the life of me, envision any MAGA voter casting a vote for Kemp in the primary. I understand that Perdue is a squish, but I would take a Trump-endorsed RINO any day over a Mitch/Pence-endorsed RINO, particular a traitor like Kemp.
We all know that since the Water Buffalo is running unopposed in her primary, the Democrats are going to flood in and vote for Kemp. The last thing they want is a Trump-endorsed challenger to face in the general.
And, as I said in a previous post: if Kemp does get defeated, he will act like a spoilt child and will gladly turn a blind eye to Democrat cheating. He would happily prefer the Water Buffalo to become governor than the Trump-endorsed candidate who defeated him.
Kemp can’t beat the Hippo. Kemp inspires no one.
Dream on. A "march" on Washington in protest of democrat election fraud? Never going to happen. Not many people interested in being imprisoned indefinitely for the crime of walking around and protesting in DC.
With King Trump’s help Perdue will crush the Ghettopotamus once and for all.
Its not just Biden, its the combo of he and Obama that have inflicted indelible damage on this once great nation.
I believe the damage started long before those two started their destruction. Unfortunately, the damage is widespread and deep. It's in virtually all our institutions; education, healthcare, and even private business. Liberalism, diversity, and the notion of equity have infected just about every element of society. The ideas of personal responsibility and excellence are not universally accepted. They're not gone, of course, as half the nation is angry and concerned about the direction of the country.
But what disturbs me the most is that there are any people out there who think the Democrat Party is still an acceptable alternative. And while it is absolutely illogical, the left and progressives have millions of followers. Their minds cannot be changed with any facts or experiences of reality. They are irreparable.
I fear we will have to have a collapse and a rebuild. Fortunately, only one side is capable of that, but it will be an ugly process.
i will be there with my camera.
Sorry, its not BS. You don’t have to believe me but life in DC isn’t anything like what most people think it is. Why do you think government keeps growing relentlessly regardless of which party is in power? Have you checked our national debt and unfunded liabilities lately? You can ask questions like this all day long and they all lead to the same conclusion.
Most importantly, why don’t Republicans roll back the size, scope and power of the ballooning federal government? Most of them claim to be conservatives after all. They don’t do that because they are careerists and supporters of a massive government spending machine that affords them a very comfortable lifestyle. Being a RINO (or closet RINO) leads to good things for those who go along with the party.
I stand by my statement that there are a lot more RINOs in the party than most people think. I accept that you have a different view. Its all good FRiend.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply. I actually considered mentioning some of the issues you did but decided in the interest of brevity (and eschewing verbosity LOL) to keep it pithy.
Anyhow, your points are well taken and appreciated.
Excellent post.
We can’t let that happen.
************
BTW on thing we can do to lower the RINO count in the GOP is to only vote for people who will commit to shrinking the government. If they won’t do that why should we vote for them?
Remember, the bigger government gets the smaller the people become. Many of our problems can be traced back to overbearing government and its deleterious influence on our lives and our freedoms. We need to get back to the Founders’ vision of limited central government powers. If we can’t do this there is little hope of ever restoring the potential greatness of this country.
We must do a better job of holding our electeds accountable for doing what WE want instead of what the party wants. JMHO
That isn't the only cause. The standard modern American diet will do it even in a non-drinker. Sugar, processed seed oils and GMO grains etc. are just as poisonous as alcohol.
Not if voter fraud is factored in.
Unfortunately for Biden, he's too far gone to capitalize on such a turnover, and his staff are too full of themselves. Times have changed. Clinton said his opponents were adversaries, not enemies. Today's Democrats consider anyone who doesn't agree to be an enemy.
The mid-term maybe the peoples last hurrah where elections are concerned. If the Democrats hold the House and take two seats in the Senate then even a blind, deaf and dumb fool RINO would have to concede that the ballot box has been taken from the people and the jig is up.
If this happens the question will have to be asked as it was in 1775, about the fact we will have no representation in our governance what are we to do?
You are right! Removal of a federal judge at any level requires impeachment with a simple majority in the House and a 2/3 vote for removal by the Senate.
I did a little research. In the entire history of our nation, only the following federal judges have been removed through our Constitution's impeachment/removal provision:
*District of New Hampshire Federal District Judge Pickering was removed from office on on March 12, 1804.
*Federal district judge West H. Humphreys – Eastern, Middle and Western Districts of Tennessee was removed from office on June 26, 1862.
*Robert W. Archbald – Third Circuit, Commerce Court - removed on July 16th, 1912.
*Harry E. Claiborne – District of Nevada - removed Oct 9, 1986.
*Alcee L. Hastings – Southern District of Florida - removed 1988.
*G. Thomas Porteous Jr. – Eastern District of Louisiana - removed 2010.
It should also be noted that a handful of judges resigned when facing impeachment/removal from office.
Agreed. Paris July 14. 1789...Just saying
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