Posted on 05/20/2022 7:26:54 AM PDT by dennisw
Sweden, Finland, NATO, and Turkey by Peter Zeihan on May 20, 2022
Most NATO members have met Finland and Sweden's joint application for membership with open enthusiasm. The US, UK, France; even the Italians and Greeks are cheering, in a rare moment of pan-European positivity.
But not the Turks. Long kept at arm's reach from EU-membership (including by self-appointed human rights stewards like the Swedes), Ankara is going to savor its ability to make Sweden and Finland's ascension process be as much about Turkey's needs as it is about Russia.
The Turks aren't just being spiteful for spite's sake.
Turkey and Greece were the first states to gain membership in an expanded NATO in 1952, joining the 12 member nations who formed the bloc in 1949. In addition to being one of the bloc's longest-standing members, Turkey (not unrealistically) views itself as one of NATO's most strategic. Its geography, particularly the control of the Turkish Straits, affords Ankara outsized influence over the Black Sea, the Danube Basin, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara also happens to have the bloc's second-largest army, second only to the United States. Turkey isn't just cribbing from a Rodney Dangerfield act when it angles for more respect from its supposed Western allies; it is an important partner and now has the geopolitical heft to make sure everybody knows it.
Ankara is also one of a handful of countries around the world that is willing, able, and actively seeking to establish itself as a meaningful regional power. Turkey's neighborhood (especially along its southern and eastern borders) has always been...spicy. The Turkish state's long-standing conflict with Kurdish separatists has been an easy target of criticism for its European neighbors. But now Turkey gets to point the finger at countries like Sweden, who it claims is doing too much to encourage Kurdish separatist militias in places like Syria. Ankara is well within its rights to claim how it can be expected to call Sweden its ally, when Stockholm's actions risk directly threatening the security and stability of the Turkish state.
Turkey also famously straddles Europe and Asia, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We should not be surprised that a country that shares land borders with Bulgaria and Iran, Greece, Georgia and Armenia has a different worldview than the northern Europeans or Portugal. Or that a country that borders the Syrian Civil War, the remnants of Iraq and an intensifying Azerbaijani/Armenian conflict is going to have different security realities than the land of Ikea, H&M and Volvos. And here we see how one of NATO's strengths--its size--complicates its ability to move swiftly as a unified bloc.
Is Turkey going to use its veto authority to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO? I think the more important question is whether or not Sweden and Finland are ready to recognize and respect Turkish security prerogatives as being as legitimate as their own concerns over Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD5GqMainjY
VERY INCISIVE >>> Best YouTube video from Peter Zaihan. He also has his own YouTube channel
This Zeihan guy is suddenly everywhere.
If anyone doubts the value of NATO , they ought to remember that the Turks stand perpetually ready to defend America if our country is ever attacked. Skeptical? Well just ask Dr. Oz. He will enlighten you. sarc/off
Never forget. The RINO running for Pennsylvania senate (Mohammed Oz) is a Turkish citizen. He voted for Erdogan in 2018. He absolutely will vote for Sharia Law, if given the chance. Pennsylvania cannot elect a foreign national as its senator.
The fact that they invited Finland and Sweden into NATO WITHOUT first checking with Turkey tells everyone what IDIOTS are running the show regarding the US and Europe.
“This Zeihan guy is suddenly everywhere.”
He has many clever and unique perspectives on Russia vs Ukraine and world geo-political-economics. His YouTube channel>>>
https://www.youtube.com/c/ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos
At his website you can sign up for his emails that come about every three days. I get them.
Meanwhile, the US always has the option of recognizing an independent Kurdistan, which, since about 40% of Turkey's population is Kurdish, ought to make Ankara's morning glory clench.
So I would assume some payoff will be negotiated.
I think Turkey under Erdogan has imperial ambitions and looks longingly to unite with its ancestral fellow Turks in Central Asia - Turkmenistan, etc. Whether this will outlast Erdogan’s regime I have no idea. If it continues and in light of an apparently weak conventional military Russia, maybe Turkey needs to be cut loose before its ambitions drag us into something.
Most likely.
*He absolutely will vote for Sharia Law, if given the chance. Pennsylvania cannot elect a foreign national as its senator.*
Then vet him if he’s lucky enough to win. One of 100 is controllable. 6 years to work against him. Your charges don’t pass the hypothetical test. Sienna wasn’t so bad either. And if she switches parties for ‘24?
So Erdogan's imperial ambitions have some real limits:
a) demographics;
b) economics: the dead weight of corruption and Islamist party welfare;
c) Europeanized middle and upper class Turks want no part of it;
Erdogan's policy to deal with (a) is to suppress Kurdish political participation. To deal with (c) he incurs the costs of (b) to support poor Turks who support him and Islamism against the middle & upper classes.
It's unclear how long he can keep up this juggling act.
“I think Turkey under Erdogan has imperial ambitions”
He is very similar to Putin. They are master coalition builders who are the glue that keeps their regimes in business. Their successors will not be able to duplicate this imperial roles. Their nations will stumble and split apart in whole or in part. You think who comes after Putin will be able to control Chechen separatism? Never!
I have read that at least 60% of the Turks living (colonizing) in Germany and Europe are Kurds. I believe it.
An independent Kurdistan would be in our interests. Kurds spread over 4 countries-all have issues with us. Plenty of oil, potentially rich. It would guarantee more fighting amongst the moozlems, also in our interests.
Why couldn’t we just listen to those that are bright? It was Senator Biden’s idea.
“The fact that they invited Finland and Sweden into NATO WITHOUT first checking with Turkey”.
You have things backwards. NATO, the organization, did not send out an invitation to Sweden and Finland. Finland and Sweden are sending applications to NATO. NATO did not go them and say “come in”. They are going to NATO saying “let us in”. Any consideration with Turkey FOLLOWS their applications.
Turkey’s issues will be dealth with. Most of it will be behind closed doors and some of the bargaining will have nothing to do with Turkey’s presumed demands, but what goodies Turkey will get from the NATO partners, and not come out as part of Turkey’s acceptance of Finland and Sweden but in notice of deals that will come out later.
Agree!
Of course, it won’t stop him from trying!
Agree!
Sanna Marin - Finnish Prime Minister - WEF Young Global Leader
Magdalena Andersson - Swedish Prime Minister - attended WEF 2020 and agrees with having a Great Reset
WEF/UN/WHO/NATO are all aligning and will be the NWO
I lived in Turkey in 71-73. Nice place at the time; however, Turkey as a secular democracy was held in place by the General Staff. When Erdogan managed to purge the generals upon his victory, it ended there. It is now an islamic state not much different that the rest of them. You’re 100 percent right as to his imperial ambitions. He would like nothing more than to be able to re-establish the Ottoman empire.
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